[Goose]

The US now has over 100,000 coronavirus diagnoses.  Almost half of the US states (23/50 + DC) had more than 100 new cases today.  Less than three weeks ago, the US as a whole had fewer than 100 new cases a day.  The exponential rise in cases shows no signs of slowing down.

BC

To some a significant degree the continued increase locally can be attributed to people who were exposed before shelter-in-place began on March 16. The CDC says "Existing literature regarding SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) suggest that the incubation period may range from 2–14 days."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...175438.htm says "A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.".
In so far as these estimates are correct, we could hope to see a reduction in new cases from "community spreading" starting at the end of March. Unfortunately, the families of the people who became ill (detected or undetected) during this shelter-in-place interval will be starting a new incubation period as late as the end of the month. Those cases will cause a slower drop-off than we might expect. This condition is recursive. We are going to be at this until at least the middle of next month, best case, and probably longer.

[Goose]

The US now has over 100,000 coronavirus diagnoses.  Almost half of the US states (23/50 + DC) had more than 100 new cases today.  Less than three weeks ago, the US as a whole had fewer than 100 new cases a day.  The exponential rise in cases shows no signs of slowing down.

BC

To some a significant degree the continued increase locally can be attributed to people who were exposed before shelter-in-place began on March 16. The CDC says "Existing literature regarding SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) suggest that the incubation period may range from 2–14 days."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...175438.htm says "A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.".
In so far as these estimates are correct, we could hope to see a reduction in new cases from "community spreading" starting at the end of March. Unfortunately, the families of the people who became ill (detected or undetected) during this shelter-in-place interval will be starting a new incubation period as late as the end of the month. Those cases will cause a slower drop-off than we might expect. This condition is recursive. We are going to be at this until at least the middle of next month, best case, and probably longer.