03-28-2020, 02:20 PM
thatboy, I'm right there with you. The only nations that seem to have maintained quasi-normalcy --South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore --are ones with widespread testing, a massive, nation-wide contact tracing system, effective quarantines and isolation, and a population that is very compliant about social distancing, wearing masks, etc. And even they have closed schools and massively reduced transit in and out of their territories.
I don't see a way to achieve herd immunity without utterly destroying our healthcare system and our economy. I think we'd need roughly 150m people infected in order to start developing herd immunity. But if 10-15% of those infected need to be admitted to the hospital, and approx. 5% need to be admitted to the ICU, our hospital system would be completely overrun.
Antibody testing will be a good halfway measure, because anyone with the antibodies can be much more secure in resuming normalcy, assuming the antibodies remain in sufficient number until a vaccine is available.
Some plasma treatments are also showing promise, although most have been begun when patients are already in critical condition, so that wouldn't eliminate the toll on our hospital system, just spare more lives.
Ultimately, I think it'll take a vaccine to get things fully back to normal. But even then, it will take months for a sufficient number of Americans (and others around the world) to get vaccinated.
Until then, who wants to go back to heaving and sweating next to 50 strangers at Soul Cycle, sitting in an amusement park ride that 200 strangers have touched in the hour or two before you, or standing in a packed bar?
My gut tells me this is going to alter our daily life well into 2021. I sure hope I'm wrong.
I don't see a way to achieve herd immunity without utterly destroying our healthcare system and our economy. I think we'd need roughly 150m people infected in order to start developing herd immunity. But if 10-15% of those infected need to be admitted to the hospital, and approx. 5% need to be admitted to the ICU, our hospital system would be completely overrun.
Antibody testing will be a good halfway measure, because anyone with the antibodies can be much more secure in resuming normalcy, assuming the antibodies remain in sufficient number until a vaccine is available.
Some plasma treatments are also showing promise, although most have been begun when patients are already in critical condition, so that wouldn't eliminate the toll on our hospital system, just spare more lives.
Ultimately, I think it'll take a vaccine to get things fully back to normal. But even then, it will take months for a sufficient number of Americans (and others around the world) to get vaccinated.
Until then, who wants to go back to heaving and sweating next to 50 strangers at Soul Cycle, sitting in an amusement park ride that 200 strangers have touched in the hour or two before you, or standing in a packed bar?
My gut tells me this is going to alter our daily life well into 2021. I sure hope I'm wrong.