03-29-2020, 09:12 PM
This may be of interest, but to me, it seems like old data in these fast moving times. Had they made numeric predictions for the number of cases 1 to 4 weeks out from March 17, it would have been of more interest to me.
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County
[url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043067v1][/url]
Their slowest, best guess, fastest rates of case growth were 10.52%, 15%, 22.14%.
They estimated the prevalence to have been between 0.08% (n=1481) and 1.38% (n=26,389), with best guess of 0.34%(n=6513) on March 17.
As I said, they didn't do any predictions. I calculate the average daily growth in hospitalizations from March 17 to March 24 (just before the new cases dropped) was 11.8%. (Confirmed cases grew an average of 14.5% during that time.)
The growth rate March 17 to 24 may be lower than up to March 17 due to increased publicity and concern, and a resultant behavioral change by the population.
Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County
[url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043067v1][/url]
Their slowest, best guess, fastest rates of case growth were 10.52%, 15%, 22.14%.
They estimated the prevalence to have been between 0.08% (n=1481) and 1.38% (n=26,389), with best guess of 0.34%(n=6513) on March 17.
As I said, they didn't do any predictions. I calculate the average daily growth in hospitalizations from March 17 to March 24 (just before the new cases dropped) was 11.8%. (Confirmed cases grew an average of 14.5% during that time.)
The growth rate March 17 to 24 may be lower than up to March 17 due to increased publicity and concern, and a resultant behavioral change by the population.
