[BostonCard]

I should add that for most people, the mask is probably most effective as a signaling device.  As Mick recounted in his anecdote, seeing someone with a mask is an immediate reminder that there is an pandemic going on and that a random person on the airplane you have just seen with a mask could be sick.  I'll bet dollars to donuts that the first class passenger, even though they accepted Mick's explanation that he was wearing the N95 as a precaution, nonetheless washed their hands right after the encounter, and probably took care to maintain social distancing with Mick and others.

BC

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Returning to the subject of this thread, interesting new estimates from the Imperial College crew on SARS-COV-2 attack rates by country, and what this means for whether the R0 has fallen below 1. The good news is that R0 seems to fall below 1 pretty rapidly once social distancing measures are implemented:



[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645728619827200?s=20[/tweet]



And they take a crack at trying to estimate the lives saved as a result:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645735381032961?s=20[/tweet]

One thing that is striking is that their estimate of R0 (3 - 4) is higher than what has been published recently.  Also, the effect of the interventions short of lockdown are depressingly small.

BC

[BostonCard]

I should add that for most people, the mask is probably most effective as a signaling device.  As Mick recounted in his anecdote, seeing someone with a mask is an immediate reminder that there is an pandemic going on and that a random person on the airplane you have just seen with a mask could be sick.  I'll bet dollars to donuts that the first class passenger, even though they accepted Mick's explanation that he was wearing the N95 as a precaution, nonetheless washed their hands right after the encounter, and probably took care to maintain social distancing with Mick and others.

BC

---

Returning to the subject of this thread, interesting new estimates from the Imperial College crew on SARS-COV-2 attack rates by country, and what this means for whether the R0 has fallen below 1. The good news is that R0 seems to fall below 1 pretty rapidly once social distancing measures are implemented:



[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645728619827200?s=20[/tweet]



And they take a crack at trying to estimate the lives saved as a result:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645735381032961?s=20[/tweet]

One thing that is striking is that their estimate of R0 (3 - 4) is higher than what has been published recently.  Also, the effect of the interventions short of lockdown are depressingly small.

BC