[2006alum]

One thing that would result in an earlier peak is social distancing measures. Another is if prevalence is much higher than we expect. Say instead of unmeasured cases being 10x, they are actually 20 or 30x of measured cases. This means its spreading faster than initial models predicted, and so peak will be sooner. Also total deaths lower.

I suspect both of these are true to some extent.

Perhaps, although there's no universe where the prevalence rates are approaching where more have been exposed/infected than have not. Indeed, the best modeling I've seen done recently suggests the highest rates of infection are in Italy (est. of 9.8%) and Spain (15%). Even the worst (best?) case scenario estimates for prevalence in Italy are ~1/4 of the population infected. That is a long way off from herd immunity formation:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645729664106497?s=20[/tweet]

[2006alum]

One thing that would result in an earlier peak is social distancing measures. Another is if prevalence is much higher than we expect. Say instead of unmeasured cases being 10x, they are actually 20 or 30x of measured cases. This means its spreading faster than initial models predicted, and so peak will be sooner. Also total deaths lower.

I suspect both of these are true to some extent.

Perhaps, although there's no universe where the prevalence rates are approaching where more have been exposed/infected than have not. Indeed, the best modeling I've seen done recently suggests the highest rates of infection are in Italy (est. of 9.8%) and Spain (15%). Even the worst (best?) case scenario estimates for prevalence in Italy are ~1/4 of the population infected. That is a long way off from herd immunity formation:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/joshmich/status/1244645729664106497?s=20[/tweet]