[burger]

I read through the methods, and this isn't even a model. It's a curve fitting exercise*.  They are simply fitting a normal (bell-shaped) curve to the death counts.  There are past examples (like HIV) where fitting this kind of curve gave wildly misleading results.  I would put zero stock in these predictions.



*curve fitting is fine for describing the distribution of past events, but it's useless for prediction.

Could you please post the link you used to get that methods section?

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/...2020_4.pdf

[burger]

I read through the methods, and this isn't even a model. It's a curve fitting exercise*.  They are simply fitting a normal (bell-shaped) curve to the death counts.  There are past examples (like HIV) where fitting this kind of curve gave wildly misleading results.  I would put zero stock in these predictions.



*curve fitting is fine for describing the distribution of past events, but it's useless for prediction.

Could you please post the link you used to get that methods section?

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/...2020_4.pdf