[2006alum]

I was going to post that this morning abut then concluded it's a kind of click-bait headline. Here's why I'm skeptical:

There are a couple of important caveats to what Faria-e-Castro calls “back-of-the-envelope” calculations: They don’t account for workers who may drop out of the labor force, thus bringing down the headline unemployment rate, and they do not estimate the impact of recently passed government stimulus, which will extend unemployment benefits and subsidize companies for not cutting staff.

So basically, that's the estimate if our $2 trillion bailout/stimulus/slush-fund hadn't passed. Since it's already been enacted into law, what's the point of this calculation?

Still, I agree with you 100% that most talking heads seem more confident than I am that the jobs will come back quickly.

[2006alum]

I was going to post that this morning abut then concluded it's a kind of click-bait headline. Here's why I'm skeptical:

There are a couple of important caveats to what Faria-e-Castro calls “back-of-the-envelope” calculations: They don’t account for workers who may drop out of the labor force, thus bringing down the headline unemployment rate, and they do not estimate the impact of recently passed government stimulus, which will extend unemployment benefits and subsidize companies for not cutting staff.

So basically, that's the estimate if our $2 trillion bailout/stimulus/slush-fund hadn't passed. Since it's already been enacted into law, what's the point of this calculation?

Still, I agree with you 100% that most talking heads seem more confident than I am that the jobs will come back quickly.