The SCC numbers are confounded by the increase in testing, which was scant (to say the least) until recently and is still ramping up. So I think it is basically impossible to interpret them as evidence either way (for or against the effectiveness of social distancing). As has been pointed out elsewhere, hospitalizations and deaths are probably more reliable though more lagging indicators. In that vein, that Kaiser Norcal sees a reduction in new hospitalizations for coronavirus is encouraging, because Kaiser serves a defined population that is large enough to be at least reasonably representative of the overall Norcal population:
Stephen Parodi, a infectious disease doctor and associate executive director with The Permanente Medical Group in Northern California, said that Kaiser Permanente is "seeing a leveling off of Covid-19 cases in our hospitals" across Northern California, where it serves 4.5 million members. Kaiser has also seen calls related to colds and coughs drop by more than half since social distancing took effect, a key indicator that precedes hospitalization, he said.
"While we still predict an upcoming surge . . ." article
Stephen Parodi, a infectious disease doctor and associate executive director with The Permanente Medical Group in Northern California, said that Kaiser Permanente is "seeing a leveling off of Covid-19 cases in our hospitals" across Northern California, where it serves 4.5 million members. Kaiser has also seen calls related to colds and coughs drop by more than half since social distancing took effect, a key indicator that precedes hospitalization, he said.
"While we still predict an upcoming surge . . ." article