[2006alum]

I find it pretty strange that they're even pretending they can make these estimates with any degree of accuracy. Goldman revised down its Q2 estimate TEN full percentage points since last week. In that same time, the COVID-19 Task Force has gone from barely acknowledging the possibility of widespread death to now predicting as much as 250,000 lives lost. I mean, I know their business requires they base their future decisions on data, but when the data is so noisy, changes so much day to day, and depends on so many social and biological factors totally outside of the control of economic decisionmakers, I feel like all this does is give people the illusion of predictability.

[2006alum]

I find it pretty strange that they're even pretending they can make these estimates with any degree of accuracy. Goldman revised down its Q2 estimate TEN full percentage points since last week. In that same time, the COVID-19 Task Force has gone from barely acknowledging the possibility of widespread death to now predicting as much as 250,000 lives lost. I mean, I know their business requires they base their future decisions on data, but when the data is so noisy, changes so much day to day, and depends on so many social and biological factors totally outside of the control of economic decisionmakers, I feel like all this does is give people the illusion of predictability.