04-01-2020, 09:39 AM
I'm mostly with you, burger, though I hold USIC in more esteem.
It's just a matter of fact that the 3,000 or so Chinese deaths most people used as their reference point didn't really get challenged until Italy's outbreak started. If anyone was relying on China's reports to guide their own planning, they were off, I'm guessing they were caught woefully unprepared when they started realizing they were planning for something 10x less severe.
We freak out about people saying "it's just the flu" when Covid-19 has a 10x CFR. Miscalculating by this much is devastating in any endeavor, and especially so when they involve lives and treasure.
It's just a matter of fact that the 3,000 or so Chinese deaths most people used as their reference point didn't really get challenged until Italy's outbreak started. If anyone was relying on China's reports to guide their own planning, they were off, I'm guessing they were caught woefully unprepared when they started realizing they were planning for something 10x less severe.
We freak out about people saying "it's just the flu" when Covid-19 has a 10x CFR. Miscalculating by this much is devastating in any endeavor, and especially so when they involve lives and treasure.