04-01-2020, 01:29 PM
Gosh, why didn't all the people who knew China was lying call up their senators and representatives and say "Drop everything else, we've got an existential threat coming out of China"?
The rumors quoted in an article posted here make guesstimates at 45K deaths in Wuhan, which is approximately 11K deaths above a steady state death rate for 2.5 months for an 11M person city with average life span of 67.6 years, plus the 3500 health-system deaths. So, that makes an attack rate of 4x of what showed up in the health system. The CFR should still the same.
It is interesting that a CFR quoted today for Hubei (in another thread) of 1.38% is less than the naive CFR South Korea reports currently (1.67% overall, 18.6% 80+, 7% 79-79) but then demographics suggest S. Korea should be about 40% higher than China. (The thread today suggests a more pedestrian rate of 13.4% for 80+ in Hubei. )
Oh yea, today's CFR numbers are in a report from the UK. Today's daily report from China indicates a naive CFR of 4.7% for Hubei for the entirety of the epidemic. I believe the corresponding number from the UK report to be 3.67%
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I have known a number of people that I would expect to (try to) refuse to be sent to the hospital in a situation of getting COVID-19. "If I'm going to die, I want to die at home, not be poked & intubated & isolated in a hospital." I do NOT presume that the same sentiment would happen in China, but I can believe so. It isn't clear whether these extra deaths in China were known to the health system. As I said earlier, I saw a video of the authorities breaking down a door to get to an 80yo man (allegedly because he was suspected of having the disease), sitting quietly in his apartment. If you added the deaths of people who chose not to seek medical help, the CFR would not be representative of the disease as it can be treated.
The rumors quoted in an article posted here make guesstimates at 45K deaths in Wuhan, which is approximately 11K deaths above a steady state death rate for 2.5 months for an 11M person city with average life span of 67.6 years, plus the 3500 health-system deaths. So, that makes an attack rate of 4x of what showed up in the health system. The CFR should still the same.
It is interesting that a CFR quoted today for Hubei (in another thread) of 1.38% is less than the naive CFR South Korea reports currently (1.67% overall, 18.6% 80+, 7% 79-79) but then demographics suggest S. Korea should be about 40% higher than China. (The thread today suggests a more pedestrian rate of 13.4% for 80+ in Hubei. )
Oh yea, today's CFR numbers are in a report from the UK. Today's daily report from China indicates a naive CFR of 4.7% for Hubei for the entirety of the epidemic. I believe the corresponding number from the UK report to be 3.67%
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I have known a number of people that I would expect to (try to) refuse to be sent to the hospital in a situation of getting COVID-19. "If I'm going to die, I want to die at home, not be poked & intubated & isolated in a hospital." I do NOT presume that the same sentiment would happen in China, but I can believe so. It isn't clear whether these extra deaths in China were known to the health system. As I said earlier, I saw a video of the authorities breaking down a door to get to an 80yo man (allegedly because he was suspected of having the disease), sitting quietly in his apartment. If you added the deaths of people who chose not to seek medical help, the CFR would not be representative of the disease as it can be treated.