04-01-2020, 01:58 PM
66 new cases & 2 new deaths as of 5PM March 31.
Still no hospitalization data, so the only hard data is the 32 deaths.
956 cases.
Naive CFR = 3.3% BUT the number of cases is presumed to be undercounted, while not everyone who is sick will survive.
If CFR = 2%, 32 deaths suggests 1600 cases with symptoms (and another roughly 1600 without symptoms).
Deaths: (Percentages given of approximate number in each age group. But these only poorly correspond to CFR.
0-20: 0 (/ ~29 = 0%)
21-30: 1 (/ 105 = 1%)
31-40: 0 (/ 182 = 0%)
41-50: 4 (/ 191 = 2.1%)
51-60: 4 (/ 182 = 2.2%)
61-70: 5 (/ 124 = 4%)
71-80: 9 (/ 86 = 10.5%)
81-90: 8 (/ ~38 = 21.1%)
90+: 1 (/ ~10 = 10%)
Unk: 0 (/ ~10)
F: 8
M: 24
Still no hospitalization data, so the only hard data is the 32 deaths.
956 cases.
Naive CFR = 3.3% BUT the number of cases is presumed to be undercounted, while not everyone who is sick will survive.
If CFR = 2%, 32 deaths suggests 1600 cases with symptoms (and another roughly 1600 without symptoms).
Deaths: (Percentages given of approximate number in each age group. But these only poorly correspond to CFR.
0-20: 0 (/ ~29 = 0%)
21-30: 1 (/ 105 = 1%)
31-40: 0 (/ 182 = 0%)
41-50: 4 (/ 191 = 2.1%)
51-60: 4 (/ 182 = 2.2%)
61-70: 5 (/ 124 = 4%)
71-80: 9 (/ 86 = 10.5%)
81-90: 8 (/ ~38 = 21.1%)
90+: 1 (/ ~10 = 10%)
Unk: 0 (/ ~10)
F: 8
M: 24