[M T]

today's SCC new cases are 54.  Since 3/30, the new cases numbers have been 42, 66, 63, 75, 54. That's an average of 60/day. The 5 days before that, the average was 78/day. I conclude that, over the last 10 days of numbers, the rate has not been increasing. I'd like to think it may have even dropped slightly, but the data are noisy and the cutpoint was arbitrary.

There are two different sets of numbers.  The very noisy ones that had the exceptional 202 daily number on the day just before your set of 5, which distorts things greatly.  (If you'd chosen 6 days, the average would have been 83.7 in the most recent set versus 54.2 in the previous set)

Given that we don't have total hospitalization numbers, the better numbers appear to be the positive test results, by the day the results were returned.  They add up to the same total, but don't have what may be delayed reporting form the SCC PHD.  These numbers show a basically flat trajectory for the last week.  Indeed for longer than that.  Why?  This may be a testing capacity issue.

(March 20) 51, 44, 48, 49, (March 24 SiP+incubation) 62, 70, 51, 71, 58, 47, 47, 71, (April 1) 56

The best I can hope for from that data is that the growth factor is approximately 1.0.  While this state is very much better than NYC, at this rate, we'll be in this situation forever.  We want to get the numbers down faster somehow.

---

I had missed this paper when it came out.
A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage

Basically, it examines cases in northern California and decides that there have been a number of different introductions of the disease into the area.

Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. ...
In Santa Clara County, cases with onset dates within two weeks of each other were associated with a large facility with multiple employers, large areas of shared space, and heavy pedestrian traffic. ...
Consistent with this epidemiological data, the genomes (UC13-15) from the three workers in the large facility are distinct from each other.

[M T]

today's SCC new cases are 54.  Since 3/30, the new cases numbers have been 42, 66, 63, 75, 54. That's an average of 60/day. The 5 days before that, the average was 78/day. I conclude that, over the last 10 days of numbers, the rate has not been increasing. I'd like to think it may have even dropped slightly, but the data are noisy and the cutpoint was arbitrary.

There are two different sets of numbers.  The very noisy ones that had the exceptional 202 daily number on the day just before your set of 5, which distorts things greatly.  (If you'd chosen 6 days, the average would have been 83.7 in the most recent set versus 54.2 in the previous set)

Given that we don't have total hospitalization numbers, the better numbers appear to be the positive test results, by the day the results were returned.  They add up to the same total, but don't have what may be delayed reporting form the SCC PHD.  These numbers show a basically flat trajectory for the last week.  Indeed for longer than that.  Why?  This may be a testing capacity issue.

(March 20) 51, 44, 48, 49, (March 24 SiP+incubation) 62, 70, 51, 71, 58, 47, 47, 71, (April 1) 56

The best I can hope for from that data is that the growth factor is approximately 1.0.  While this state is very much better than NYC, at this rate, we'll be in this situation forever.  We want to get the numbers down faster somehow.

---

I had missed this paper when it came out.
A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage

Basically, it examines cases in northern California and decides that there have been a number of different introductions of the disease into the area.

Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. ...
In Santa Clara County, cases with onset dates within two weeks of each other were associated with a large facility with multiple employers, large areas of shared space, and heavy pedestrian traffic. ...
Consistent with this epidemiological data, the genomes (UC13-15) from the three workers in the large facility are distinct from each other.