[OutsiderFan]

Is there any proof SARS-CoV-2 will produce a wave? I’m not seeing any evidence any country has seen a true wave, without dramatic distancing. I get wanting to apply seasonality to this virus, but I see scant evidence warmer weather is stopping spread. I’m starting to entertain the idea this is more like a boiling pot of water. Take the lid of distancing off, and the virus steam comes out without containment. Put the lid of extreme distancing on and the steam of spread is contained.

Italy has slowed spread by shutting the country down, but even it is seeing maybe a 20% drop in new infections since its peak, and still staying around that number for a week now. China tried to open things up again, like its hoops league and movie theatres and ended up delaying the planned restart and closing them.

I’m all for there being a wave, or even waves, but is there any evidence anywhere that shows any evidence this particular virus recedes before coming back again? My observation demonstrates not a wave but a rising tide as a better metaphor for what is happening. I don’t see things slowing in Brazil. I don’t  see things slowing in SEC country. And we see that when distancing is relaxed, the virus comes back again. 

There just seems to be more evidence the waves are all about human action not the virus per se. And if this is the case, it raises profound questions for us, especially if we find the serology tests identify who has been exposed to the virus, but we learn the virus can spread from asymptomatic to those without immunity, like herpes or AIDS. I mean how does the virus all of a sudden start spreading when the distancing lid is taken off the pot of boiling water? We need the source of heat that enables the boiling of the virus’ easy transmissibility to be extinguished, and I don’t see anything to suggest what this is for the remainder of 2020 at minimum.

[OutsiderFan]

Is there any proof SARS-CoV-2 will produce a wave? I’m not seeing any evidence any country has seen a true wave, without dramatic distancing. I get wanting to apply seasonality to this virus, but I see scant evidence warmer weather is stopping spread. I’m starting to entertain the idea this is more like a boiling pot of water. Take the lid of distancing off, and the virus steam comes out without containment. Put the lid of extreme distancing on and the steam of spread is contained.

Italy has slowed spread by shutting the country down, but even it is seeing maybe a 20% drop in new infections since its peak, and still staying around that number for a week now. China tried to open things up again, like its hoops league and movie theatres and ended up delaying the planned restart and closing them.

I’m all for there being a wave, or even waves, but is there any evidence anywhere that shows any evidence this particular virus recedes before coming back again? My observation demonstrates not a wave but a rising tide as a better metaphor for what is happening. I don’t see things slowing in Brazil. I don’t  see things slowing in SEC country. And we see that when distancing is relaxed, the virus comes back again. 

There just seems to be more evidence the waves are all about human action not the virus per se. And if this is the case, it raises profound questions for us, especially if we find the serology tests identify who has been exposed to the virus, but we learn the virus can spread from asymptomatic to those without immunity, like herpes or AIDS. I mean how does the virus all of a sudden start spreading when the distancing lid is taken off the pot of boiling water? We need the source of heat that enables the boiling of the virus’ easy transmissibility to be extinguished, and I don’t see anything to suggest what this is for the remainder of 2020 at minimum.