04-05-2020, 04:08 PM
Closed populations like cruise ships offer a bit of a window into the CFR:
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/...cle-link-5
If there are 1000 on board, and 4 deaths, the lower bound of the infection fatality rate (assuming everyone has been exposed) is 0.4%. They don't give the number of positive tests, but if everyone who has "flu-like symptoms" has Covid-19, and no one else dies, they upper bound of the CFR is 2.1%. In all likelihood, some of the passengers without symptoms will be positive, so the infection fatality rate is somewhere in between.
You might have to make an adjustment for the age of the population, however.
I do hope that every passenger is tested by both PCR and serology, as this would give us the best estimate of how symptomatic people are, and the infection fatality rate (and case fatality rate).
BC
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/...cle-link-5
If there are 1000 on board, and 4 deaths, the lower bound of the infection fatality rate (assuming everyone has been exposed) is 0.4%. They don't give the number of positive tests, but if everyone who has "flu-like symptoms" has Covid-19, and no one else dies, they upper bound of the CFR is 2.1%. In all likelihood, some of the passengers without symptoms will be positive, so the infection fatality rate is somewhere in between.
You might have to make an adjustment for the age of the population, however.
I do hope that every passenger is tested by both PCR and serology, as this would give us the best estimate of how symptomatic people are, and the infection fatality rate (and case fatality rate).
BC