The relation between the daily new cases from the SCC site and the testing results is becoming clearer. The testing results are dynamic. If they have a case for which the results came in 3 days ago, the results are added to today's new cases, and added to the testing results of 3 days ago.
I continue to assert the Testing stats are the best stats we have for watching the situation. (Total hospitalizations (not daily) would also be good, but we don't have them.) Earlier today, Dr. Cody indicated there were still problems in getting tests, so the testing numbers have to be viewed carefully and skeptically.
I have the Santa Clara County dashboard up in 2 screens, one from 2 days ago (partial day results for Apr. 2) and one from today (partial day results for Apr. 4). I will give these numbers as Positive Results/Negative Results/Pending.
The first set of numbers is April 2; the 2nd set is April 4; the third set are the deltas between the two
March 24 62/643/1 60/642/1 -2/1/0
March 25 70/679/1 70/679/1 0/0/0
March 26 51/525/1 51/526/0 0/1/-1
March 27 71/593/0 75/650/1 4/57/1
March 28 58/553/0 69/677/0 11/124/0
March 29 47/567/1 52/642/1 5/75/0
March 30 47/434/0 50/478/0 3/44/0
March 31 71/529/1 74/561/1 3/32/0
April 1 56/614/2 60/657/1 4/43/-1
April 2 9/175/0 52/452/0 43/277/0
So, the increases shown in the daily new case numbers is apparently just a reflection of the PHD processing the reports it has been given over the last week or so. The positive tests are updated as they get processed, using the date when they came in, but not in a FIFO order.
That said, the positive test numbers since March 24 (7 days after SiP order):
60, 70, 51, 75, 69, 52, 50, 74, 60, 52, 31
Caveat: The number of tests has dropped as well. Only 202 tests on that last day of which 31 were positive.
That's less than half as many tests as the day before, and 1/3 of the number two days before.
That's a high percentage positive/total tests relative to the two days before it.
It is NOT clear there is a downward trend. It looks like it, but it could be an artifact of fewer tests available.
We can hope...
I continue to assert the Testing stats are the best stats we have for watching the situation. (Total hospitalizations (not daily) would also be good, but we don't have them.) Earlier today, Dr. Cody indicated there were still problems in getting tests, so the testing numbers have to be viewed carefully and skeptically.
I have the Santa Clara County dashboard up in 2 screens, one from 2 days ago (partial day results for Apr. 2) and one from today (partial day results for Apr. 4). I will give these numbers as Positive Results/Negative Results/Pending.
The first set of numbers is April 2; the 2nd set is April 4; the third set are the deltas between the two
March 24 62/643/1 60/642/1 -2/1/0
March 25 70/679/1 70/679/1 0/0/0
March 26 51/525/1 51/526/0 0/1/-1
March 27 71/593/0 75/650/1 4/57/1
March 28 58/553/0 69/677/0 11/124/0
March 29 47/567/1 52/642/1 5/75/0
March 30 47/434/0 50/478/0 3/44/0
March 31 71/529/1 74/561/1 3/32/0
April 1 56/614/2 60/657/1 4/43/-1
April 2 9/175/0 52/452/0 43/277/0
So, the increases shown in the daily new case numbers is apparently just a reflection of the PHD processing the reports it has been given over the last week or so. The positive tests are updated as they get processed, using the date when they came in, but not in a FIFO order.
That said, the positive test numbers since March 24 (7 days after SiP order):
60, 70, 51, 75, 69, 52, 50, 74, 60, 52, 31
Caveat: The number of tests has dropped as well. Only 202 tests on that last day of which 31 were positive.
That's less than half as many tests as the day before, and 1/3 of the number two days before.
That's a high percentage positive/total tests relative to the two days before it.
It is NOT clear there is a downward trend. It looks like it, but it could be an artifact of fewer tests available.
We can hope...