[burger]

My greatest question remains how do we end stay at home orders and not just have another massive outbreak when they are lifted. I see no evidence any country has fully gone back to normal without restarting virus spread. So many unknowns still, that not even antibody testing can fully answer, but hopefully it does get us closer to understanding WTF is going on.

I'll give you the most pessimistic answer you'll see here: there is 0 chance of avoiding a second outbreak.  Even if we get the numbers down via social isolation now, all you need is a few undetected cases to slip past, and we are right back where we started a few weeks after the movement restrictions are loosened.  The federal government has offered no plans whatsoever for widespread testing and contact tracing.  It's abundantly clear that trump is banking on a hail mary from cholorquine to save the day.  When that fails (evidence points that way so far), he has nothing else to offer us.

The states lack the resources to implement the testing and contact tracing that would be necessary--maybe CA and NY could pull it off, but it will never happen in poorer states, and I doubt that CA can or would close its borders.  So even if CA does it right (and I haven't seen any evidence they are working on post-peak planning yet), if AZ screws things up (their governor already waited weeks too long to shut down the state), it just takes a few cases moving from AZ to CA to set things off again.

Newsom is saying to expect restrictions until August or September, but I think even that is optimistic.  I expect political pressure will result in things opening up by the fall or even the summer, but the virus will not be gone in the US, and there will be a second outbreak.

[burger]

My greatest question remains how do we end stay at home orders and not just have another massive outbreak when they are lifted. I see no evidence any country has fully gone back to normal without restarting virus spread. So many unknowns still, that not even antibody testing can fully answer, but hopefully it does get us closer to understanding WTF is going on.

I'll give you the most pessimistic answer you'll see here: there is 0 chance of avoiding a second outbreak.  Even if we get the numbers down via social isolation now, all you need is a few undetected cases to slip past, and we are right back where we started a few weeks after the movement restrictions are loosened.  The federal government has offered no plans whatsoever for widespread testing and contact tracing.  It's abundantly clear that trump is banking on a hail mary from cholorquine to save the day.  When that fails (evidence points that way so far), he has nothing else to offer us.

The states lack the resources to implement the testing and contact tracing that would be necessary--maybe CA and NY could pull it off, but it will never happen in poorer states, and I doubt that CA can or would close its borders.  So even if CA does it right (and I haven't seen any evidence they are working on post-peak planning yet), if AZ screws things up (their governor already waited weeks too long to shut down the state), it just takes a few cases moving from AZ to CA to set things off again.

Newsom is saying to expect restrictions until August or September, but I think even that is optimistic.  I expect political pressure will result in things opening up by the fall or even the summer, but the virus will not be gone in the US, and there will be a second outbreak.