[Goose]

The states lack the resources to implement the testing and contact tracing that would be necessary--maybe CA and NY could pull it off, but it will never happen in poorer states, and I doubt that CA can or would close its borders.  So even if CA does it right (and I haven't seen any evidence they are working on post-peak planning yet), if AZ screws things up (their governor already waited weeks too long to shut down the state), it just takes a few cases moving from AZ to CA to set things off again.


Newsom is saying to expect restrictions until August or September, but I think even that is optimistic.  I expect political pressure will result in things opening up by the fall or even the summer, but the virus will not be gone in the US, and there will be a second outbreak.

Burger, I am not sure why you believe the states/counties lack the resources  to implement the testing and contact tracing. I don't know how many people it would take to do it. I have guessed that Santa Clara county would need to hire at least 500 people to trace a residual level of cases. They certainly have the resources to do that. Even if it was 10 times that, they could do it. They can also temporarily redirect staff from some of their other departments to assist in this task. There is an upper limit on what is possible, but it is certain the counties can do a lot more than they are currently staffed to do. Fortunately the large urban centers who will need the most tracing capability are also the richest counties. They can afford to do a lot. Rural (poorer) counties can't afford to do nearly as much, but they have less population density and normally will need many fewer people.

The state can and should provide a "back up" capability that can apply additional personnel to any "hot spots" that would overwhelm the county capability. They can also deal with coordinating information about possible contacts across county lines, although in many cases adjacent counties can do it themselves more efficiently.

The USPHS is responsible for maintaining control of any interstate transmission issues. A state may, if their is a demonstrable public health reason, prevent entry into the state by people from another state. The USPHS can do so as well, without the political backlash state politicians would face (at least in theory). The CDC can and should coordinate "best practices" and such.

I say nothing that isn't obvious when I say many (most) people on this board have no confidence in the POTUS and his approach to this epidemic. Fortunately, there are people in the Federal government that are competent and can do their job. However, IMHO this experience should make it entirely clear to all citizens why it is a really terrible idea to rely on the Federal government to be the primary resource in  response to epidemics. It is even more inadvisable for them to be the sole response. With the best will in the world, the Federal government will always be slow to act on these types of problems. Epidemics seldom start out as a national crisis. They start out as a local one that gets out of hand. That is also why we don't have Federal fire protection and nothing else. At the Federal level, we suffered greatly from "victory disease". We beat back H1N1, SARS, MERS, and ZIKA virus without really any difficulty. The CDC is (justly) world renowned for its help with serious epidemics (Ebola). However, the current situation is none of the above, and the Feds weren't ready. There was also a lot of "crying wolf" syndrome. All these previous viruses were supposed to be "big deals", and it turned out they weren't. Was our lack of response and lack of preparation at the Federal level really stupid? Sure it was, but also entirely predictable. Was our lack of preparedness at the state and county level also stupid. Yes, and I would argue even more so, because the "plan" has always relied on a robust local and state based response.

As an aside, I have mostly liked Newsom's response to this crisis. However, I think he revealed, perhaps inadvertently, a real problem with his thinking. He stated "We have to rely disproportionately on ourselves". This is nonsense. The problem he needs to solve is here in California. There is nothing disproportionate about that. We don't expect him to fix New York or elsewhere. This problem wasn't inflicted on us by somebody else. It is just part of modern society. It is our problem, it is here and and it is now, and therefore also his. We have no reasonable expectation that "they" are going to save us. We are fools to think otherwise.

[Goose]

The states lack the resources to implement the testing and contact tracing that would be necessary--maybe CA and NY could pull it off, but it will never happen in poorer states, and I doubt that CA can or would close its borders.  So even if CA does it right (and I haven't seen any evidence they are working on post-peak planning yet), if AZ screws things up (their governor already waited weeks too long to shut down the state), it just takes a few cases moving from AZ to CA to set things off again.


Newsom is saying to expect restrictions until August or September, but I think even that is optimistic.  I expect political pressure will result in things opening up by the fall or even the summer, but the virus will not be gone in the US, and there will be a second outbreak.

Burger, I am not sure why you believe the states/counties lack the resources  to implement the testing and contact tracing. I don't know how many people it would take to do it. I have guessed that Santa Clara county would need to hire at least 500 people to trace a residual level of cases. They certainly have the resources to do that. Even if it was 10 times that, they could do it. They can also temporarily redirect staff from some of their other departments to assist in this task. There is an upper limit on what is possible, but it is certain the counties can do a lot more than they are currently staffed to do. Fortunately the large urban centers who will need the most tracing capability are also the richest counties. They can afford to do a lot. Rural (poorer) counties can't afford to do nearly as much, but they have less population density and normally will need many fewer people.

The state can and should provide a "back up" capability that can apply additional personnel to any "hot spots" that would overwhelm the county capability. They can also deal with coordinating information about possible contacts across county lines, although in many cases adjacent counties can do it themselves more efficiently.

The USPHS is responsible for maintaining control of any interstate transmission issues. A state may, if their is a demonstrable public health reason, prevent entry into the state by people from another state. The USPHS can do so as well, without the political backlash state politicians would face (at least in theory). The CDC can and should coordinate "best practices" and such.

I say nothing that isn't obvious when I say many (most) people on this board have no confidence in the POTUS and his approach to this epidemic. Fortunately, there are people in the Federal government that are competent and can do their job. However, IMHO this experience should make it entirely clear to all citizens why it is a really terrible idea to rely on the Federal government to be the primary resource in  response to epidemics. It is even more inadvisable for them to be the sole response. With the best will in the world, the Federal government will always be slow to act on these types of problems. Epidemics seldom start out as a national crisis. They start out as a local one that gets out of hand. That is also why we don't have Federal fire protection and nothing else. At the Federal level, we suffered greatly from "victory disease". We beat back H1N1, SARS, MERS, and ZIKA virus without really any difficulty. The CDC is (justly) world renowned for its help with serious epidemics (Ebola). However, the current situation is none of the above, and the Feds weren't ready. There was also a lot of "crying wolf" syndrome. All these previous viruses were supposed to be "big deals", and it turned out they weren't. Was our lack of response and lack of preparation at the Federal level really stupid? Sure it was, but also entirely predictable. Was our lack of preparedness at the state and county level also stupid. Yes, and I would argue even more so, because the "plan" has always relied on a robust local and state based response.

As an aside, I have mostly liked Newsom's response to this crisis. However, I think he revealed, perhaps inadvertently, a real problem with his thinking. He stated "We have to rely disproportionately on ourselves". This is nonsense. The problem he needs to solve is here in California. There is nothing disproportionate about that. We don't expect him to fix New York or elsewhere. This problem wasn't inflicted on us by somebody else. It is just part of modern society. It is our problem, it is here and and it is now, and therefore also his. We have no reasonable expectation that "they" are going to save us. We are fools to think otherwise.