[burger]

1) Slow the spread (as we are doing now)
2) Reopen, state by state (the trigger to moving to phase 2 is as follows):

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23
  

3) Establish protection, then lift all restrictions (the trigger for moving to phase 3 is the development of a vaccine or therapy that significantly reduces the morbidity/mortality of the disease)
4) Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic

My guess, if everything goes right, we can get to stage 2 by summer, stage 3 by next year, stage 4 should be ongoing (and at a minimum will take years).
BC

Reopening after 2 weeks of reduction in cases is super ignorant.  There will still be tons of cases at that point and many asymptomatic ones that can spread the virus further.  It's highly likely that we'll get second outbreaks in that case.  Will their be public or political will to close things again or have more bailouts?  I don't know. 

Maybe by the fall numbers will be low enough that we can open things up again in many states.  A month from now, NY, CA, WA, etc. will look a lot better in terms of active cases.  So those states will be able to start pivoting to the contact tracing/testing/quarantine triad that needs to happen next (described well here https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opini...ntine.html), even if they are not open for business yet.

A hitch is that the states are all about to go broke.  Tax revenue is plummeting and the states can't just run deficits.  The federal government is going to have to start shoveling tons of money at the states to implement the testing and contact tracing.  The feds could run the contact tracing and quarantine operation themselves, but since Trump et al. have shown zero leadership or even a hint of a plan so far, I don't think they're up to the task.  This is worrisome because some states have very little know-how or staffing left in their public health agencies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/co...ments.html

Maybe a few well-run states and/or private organizations can come up with a detailed gameplan for implementing the contact tracing etc. so that it can be followed by everyone else.

[burger]

1) Slow the spread (as we are doing now)
2) Reopen, state by state (the trigger to moving to phase 2 is as follows):

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23
  

3) Establish protection, then lift all restrictions (the trigger for moving to phase 3 is the development of a vaccine or therapy that significantly reduces the morbidity/mortality of the disease)
4) Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic

My guess, if everything goes right, we can get to stage 2 by summer, stage 3 by next year, stage 4 should be ongoing (and at a minimum will take years).
BC

Reopening after 2 weeks of reduction in cases is super ignorant.  There will still be tons of cases at that point and many asymptomatic ones that can spread the virus further.  It's highly likely that we'll get second outbreaks in that case.  Will their be public or political will to close things again or have more bailouts?  I don't know. 

Maybe by the fall numbers will be low enough that we can open things up again in many states.  A month from now, NY, CA, WA, etc. will look a lot better in terms of active cases.  So those states will be able to start pivoting to the contact tracing/testing/quarantine triad that needs to happen next (described well here https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opini...ntine.html), even if they are not open for business yet.

A hitch is that the states are all about to go broke.  Tax revenue is plummeting and the states can't just run deficits.  The federal government is going to have to start shoveling tons of money at the states to implement the testing and contact tracing.  The feds could run the contact tracing and quarantine operation themselves, but since Trump et al. have shown zero leadership or even a hint of a plan so far, I don't think they're up to the task.  This is worrisome because some states have very little know-how or staffing left in their public health agencies: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/co...ments.html

Maybe a few well-run states and/or private organizations can come up with a detailed gameplan for implementing the contact tracing etc. so that it can be followed by everyone else.