[BostonCard]

1) Slow the spread (as we are doing now)

2) Reopen, state by state (the trigger to moving to phase 2 is as follows):

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23
  

3) Establish protection, then lift all restrictions (the trigger for moving to phase 3 is the development of a vaccine or therapy that significantly reduces the morbidity/mortality of the disease)

4) Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic



My guess, if everything goes right, we can get to stage 2 by summer, stage 3 by next year, stage 4 should be ongoing (and at a minimum will take years).

BC

Reopening after 2 weeks of reduction in cases is super ignorant.  There will still be tons of cases at that point and many asymptomatic ones that can spread the virus further.  It's highly likely that we'll get second outbreaks in that case.  Will their be public or political will to close things again or have more bailouts?  I don't know. 

That's why all of the conditions have to be met.  The sustained reduction of cases has to be linked with hospitals being away from surge state, and the capability to test all people with symptoms, and to conduct active monitoring of cases and contacts.  Also, it is meant to be a partial reopening; lifting all restrictions wouldn't occur until protections can be established.  A sustained reduction in cases is necessary but not sufficient for reopening.

Also, I don't think the transition from 1 to 2 to be a discrete event.  While the reduction in cases is happening, the state will have to ramp up testing and tracking.  And I expect reopening to be done in a phased fashion.  For example, one can start increasing the exemptions to the shelter in place rule, while maintaining some restrictions.  Schools might be re-opened in a blended fashion, with students alternating between studying from home and going into a half-full school, to maintain more social distance.  If cases continue to decline then further restrictions can be lifted, while they can be re-tightened in response to surveillance showing a localized increase in cases.

BC

[BostonCard]

1) Slow the spread (as we are doing now)

2) Reopen, state by state (the trigger to moving to phase 2 is as follows):

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23
  

3) Establish protection, then lift all restrictions (the trigger for moving to phase 3 is the development of a vaccine or therapy that significantly reduces the morbidity/mortality of the disease)

4) Rebuild Our Readiness for the Next Pandemic



My guess, if everything goes right, we can get to stage 2 by summer, stage 3 by next year, stage 4 should be ongoing (and at a minimum will take years).

BC

Reopening after 2 weeks of reduction in cases is super ignorant.  There will still be tons of cases at that point and many asymptomatic ones that can spread the virus further.  It's highly likely that we'll get second outbreaks in that case.  Will their be public or political will to close things again or have more bailouts?  I don't know. 

That's why all of the conditions have to be met.  The sustained reduction of cases has to be linked with hospitals being away from surge state, and the capability to test all people with symptoms, and to conduct active monitoring of cases and contacts.  Also, it is meant to be a partial reopening; lifting all restrictions wouldn't occur until protections can be established.  A sustained reduction in cases is necessary but not sufficient for reopening.

Also, I don't think the transition from 1 to 2 to be a discrete event.  While the reduction in cases is happening, the state will have to ramp up testing and tracking.  And I expect reopening to be done in a phased fashion.  For example, one can start increasing the exemptions to the shelter in place rule, while maintaining some restrictions.  Schools might be re-opened in a blended fashion, with students alternating between studying from home and going into a half-full school, to maintain more social distance.  If cases continue to decline then further restrictions can be lifted, while they can be re-tightened in response to surveillance showing a localized increase in cases.

BC