[BostonCard]

The CDC does much more than major epidemics with pandemic potential.  They deal with local outbreaks all the time.  Hanta virus in Yosemite? The CDC was there.  E. coli in your lettuce?  That was CDC investigators tracing the source.  West Nile Virus in New York?  Yup, CDC.  Multidrug infections being spread in hospitals via duodenoscopes?  The CDC aids the hospital epidemiologists liaise with the FDA (who governs devices).  The idea that the CDC just sits on its hands until there is a major pandemic is laughable.

BC

True, but these are all "small" events. How many people in the CDC were actually involved in these responses? I agree they don't sit on their hands at all. I think they are a pretty competent bunch, and I have friends that have worked there. But they were not ready for a major pandemic, because IMHO of "It won't happen here" mentality. Perfectly understandable, because until now, it hadn't. Yes, in theory they should be preparing for it, but in practice they had other important things to do (as you point out), and the pandemic case in the USA just wasn't front burner.

I also think if we are going to suggest the CDC "failed", we should explicitly say what we think they were tasked with doing that they failed to do. My criticism would be mostly that they did not understand the difficulties that would arise in a large scale testing program in the USA. They didn't realize that they didn't have the ability to manufacture enough test kits to go around. They didn't realize their QC system was not adequate to manufacture tests. They also didn't realize that they needed to have tests that could be run by private and hospital labs on the PCR equipment that those labs owned and that this process needed to be planned for in advance. They didn't early on tell everybody that many more swabs would be needed and that the CDC couldn't supply them. These are mostly logistical questions, not scientific ones. The CDC is not the only group that didn't realize that the logistical questions would really matter, but they were the one organization that should have had an overview of what would be required.

Yeah, I mean, the CDC and HHS haven't updated their influenza pandemic preparedness manual since *checks notes* 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...2017v2.pdf

It strikes me as silly that because the manual focused on influenza and not coronavirus that none of those lessons were applied.

BC

[BostonCard]

The CDC does much more than major epidemics with pandemic potential.  They deal with local outbreaks all the time.  Hanta virus in Yosemite? The CDC was there.  E. coli in your lettuce?  That was CDC investigators tracing the source.  West Nile Virus in New York?  Yup, CDC.  Multidrug infections being spread in hospitals via duodenoscopes?  The CDC aids the hospital epidemiologists liaise with the FDA (who governs devices).  The idea that the CDC just sits on its hands until there is a major pandemic is laughable.

BC

True, but these are all "small" events. How many people in the CDC were actually involved in these responses? I agree they don't sit on their hands at all. I think they are a pretty competent bunch, and I have friends that have worked there. But they were not ready for a major pandemic, because IMHO of "It won't happen here" mentality. Perfectly understandable, because until now, it hadn't. Yes, in theory they should be preparing for it, but in practice they had other important things to do (as you point out), and the pandemic case in the USA just wasn't front burner.

I also think if we are going to suggest the CDC "failed", we should explicitly say what we think they were tasked with doing that they failed to do. My criticism would be mostly that they did not understand the difficulties that would arise in a large scale testing program in the USA. They didn't realize that they didn't have the ability to manufacture enough test kits to go around. They didn't realize their QC system was not adequate to manufacture tests. They also didn't realize that they needed to have tests that could be run by private and hospital labs on the PCR equipment that those labs owned and that this process needed to be planned for in advance. They didn't early on tell everybody that many more swabs would be needed and that the CDC couldn't supply them. These are mostly logistical questions, not scientific ones. The CDC is not the only group that didn't realize that the logistical questions would really matter, but they were the one organization that should have had an overview of what would be required.

Yeah, I mean, the CDC and HHS haven't updated their influenza pandemic preparedness manual since *checks notes* 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resourc...2017v2.pdf

It strikes me as silly that because the manual focused on influenza and not coronavirus that none of those lessons were applied.

BC