[Mick]

The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/31/goldman-s...action-q2/

their previous forecast was on 20 Mar 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-...rcent.html

There is no way whatsoever that we will have positive economic growth in Q3 or Q4.  Not a prayer.

---

Here's a new depressing new estimate:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1245406152793501697?s=20[/tweet]

It's April 9 and we're at 16,780,000 unemployed in just three weeks.  if the depressing estimate is 20 million unemployed by July, how are we going to keep it below 20 million when no one can go to work except the essential workers?

---

Interesting lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic:
Basically, states that had stricter social distancing policies had the highest growth in manufacturing activity.
BC

Agreed, it's interesting.  Unfortunately, China does our manufacturing now.  Perhaps they will be the beneficiary of post-pandemic success.  Manufacturing is only 8.8% of our GDP at present.

---

This is a false dichotomy. If we did nothing to slow the virus, our healthcare system would be completely overrun, and with it, our economy, but with no easy path back because we'd have no healthcare system. 

Also a false dichotomy.  I didn't say "Do nothing."  Obviously we need to take reasonable steps to avoid the coronavirus.

What I'm trying to say is that this isn't about Wall Street, like I've seen a few posters mention on this site.  This is about Main Street.  America is in the process of voluntarily eliminating an enormous portion of its economy, up to 67 million jobs, according to the St. Louis Fed governor.

In an average week, pre-pandemic, about 225k jobless claims were filed.  This week, 3.5 million people filed for unemployment (Edit: the revised initial claim is 6.6 million, see link below).  3.3 million filed for unemployment the week before.  BofA's senior economist says it will be 5.5 million next week.  That's not Wall Street, that's ten million people out of a job on Main Street.  10 million in two weeks.  There are 155.76 million employed in America.  By fall, that number will be under 100 million people.  

I realize most people on this board don't live like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck, or the 40% of America that can't afford an unforeseen $400 expense.  All I'm saying is that it didn't have to be that way.  We didn't have to kill the next generation.

See you at the riots in September...

Mick, whether or not any one of us on this board "live[s] like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck," it's probably safe to assume we all have friends and family who do, since, as you say, it's half the country. So nothing you are saying is something you are uniquely positioned to have awareness of vis-a-vis the rest of us.

However, for all you are saying "it didn't have to be this way," I've yet to hear from you a clear, concrete, and detailed proposal for what way it could/should have been instead. That's what I don't get. Tell me precisely what you think we should have done instead. 

The only countries to have avoided pretty severe lockdowns are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong (and possibly Sweden -- jury is still out). Those countries have done widespread testing, fever checks to enter just about anywhere public establishment, insanely effective social contact tracing, and mandatory and widespread isolation for even those potentially exposed to someone who was diagnosed. 

And if that's what you think we should be doing instead, I'm surprised you aren't joining the chorus of the rest of us who have been practically screaming at the ineptitude of our country's leadership, for failing to roll out tests, then for lying that "anyone who wants a test can get tested," and now for dismissing the importance of testing altogether. Six weeks ago the leader of our country said that it was "just 15 cases and they'll go away any day now." That statement reflected the honest thinking of our nation's leader about how important it was to be prepared for this.

I would think you'd have lamented, repeatedly, as several others of us have, how one of the most important interim measures will be developing and deploying a rapid antibody test so that we can at least determine who has (potential short-term) immunity to resume normal activities. 

And I would have thought you'd be apoplectic that the Trump Administration shipped 18 tons of PPE to China in mid-February because apparently our country's leadership didn't anticipate any possibility we'd need it here in the United States. Without effective PPE, our frontline medical providers will be sitting ducks, and with them anyone who needs to use the hospital for any reason.

So I guess, tl;dr, tell me what you think we should be doing instead that isn't what I've just outlined, and what many of us have been crying out about over the past month?

Apparently I've failed the anti-Trump loyalty oath.  I don't make a very good Fascist, true.

FYI, I think the administration has done a poor job.  I just don't feel the need to include it in every post like you and burger.

---

Worth noting that today 6.6 million people filed first time unemployment.

The Dow was up 469 points.

BC

Also worth noting that last week's unemployment was revised upward by 219k.  Now at 16,780,000 first time unemployment claims in three weeks.

[Mick]

The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/31/goldman-s...action-q2/

their previous forecast was on 20 Mar 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-...rcent.html

There is no way whatsoever that we will have positive economic growth in Q3 or Q4.  Not a prayer.

---

Here's a new depressing new estimate:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1245406152793501697?s=20[/tweet]

It's April 9 and we're at 16,780,000 unemployed in just three weeks.  if the depressing estimate is 20 million unemployed by July, how are we going to keep it below 20 million when no one can go to work except the essential workers?

---

Interesting lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic:
Basically, states that had stricter social distancing policies had the highest growth in manufacturing activity.
BC

Agreed, it's interesting.  Unfortunately, China does our manufacturing now.  Perhaps they will be the beneficiary of post-pandemic success.  Manufacturing is only 8.8% of our GDP at present.

---

This is a false dichotomy. If we did nothing to slow the virus, our healthcare system would be completely overrun, and with it, our economy, but with no easy path back because we'd have no healthcare system. 

Also a false dichotomy.  I didn't say "Do nothing."  Obviously we need to take reasonable steps to avoid the coronavirus.

What I'm trying to say is that this isn't about Wall Street, like I've seen a few posters mention on this site.  This is about Main Street.  America is in the process of voluntarily eliminating an enormous portion of its economy, up to 67 million jobs, according to the St. Louis Fed governor.

In an average week, pre-pandemic, about 225k jobless claims were filed.  This week, 3.5 million people filed for unemployment (Edit: the revised initial claim is 6.6 million, see link below).  3.3 million filed for unemployment the week before.  BofA's senior economist says it will be 5.5 million next week.  That's not Wall Street, that's ten million people out of a job on Main Street.  10 million in two weeks.  There are 155.76 million employed in America.  By fall, that number will be under 100 million people.  

I realize most people on this board don't live like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck, or the 40% of America that can't afford an unforeseen $400 expense.  All I'm saying is that it didn't have to be that way.  We didn't have to kill the next generation.

See you at the riots in September...

Mick, whether or not any one of us on this board "live[s] like the 51% of America who live paycheck to paycheck," it's probably safe to assume we all have friends and family who do, since, as you say, it's half the country. So nothing you are saying is something you are uniquely positioned to have awareness of vis-a-vis the rest of us.

However, for all you are saying "it didn't have to be this way," I've yet to hear from you a clear, concrete, and detailed proposal for what way it could/should have been instead. That's what I don't get. Tell me precisely what you think we should have done instead. 

The only countries to have avoided pretty severe lockdowns are South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong (and possibly Sweden -- jury is still out). Those countries have done widespread testing, fever checks to enter just about anywhere public establishment, insanely effective social contact tracing, and mandatory and widespread isolation for even those potentially exposed to someone who was diagnosed. 

And if that's what you think we should be doing instead, I'm surprised you aren't joining the chorus of the rest of us who have been practically screaming at the ineptitude of our country's leadership, for failing to roll out tests, then for lying that "anyone who wants a test can get tested," and now for dismissing the importance of testing altogether. Six weeks ago the leader of our country said that it was "just 15 cases and they'll go away any day now." That statement reflected the honest thinking of our nation's leader about how important it was to be prepared for this.

I would think you'd have lamented, repeatedly, as several others of us have, how one of the most important interim measures will be developing and deploying a rapid antibody test so that we can at least determine who has (potential short-term) immunity to resume normal activities. 

And I would have thought you'd be apoplectic that the Trump Administration shipped 18 tons of PPE to China in mid-February because apparently our country's leadership didn't anticipate any possibility we'd need it here in the United States. Without effective PPE, our frontline medical providers will be sitting ducks, and with them anyone who needs to use the hospital for any reason.

So I guess, tl;dr, tell me what you think we should be doing instead that isn't what I've just outlined, and what many of us have been crying out about over the past month?

Apparently I've failed the anti-Trump loyalty oath.  I don't make a very good Fascist, true.

FYI, I think the administration has done a poor job.  I just don't feel the need to include it in every post like you and burger.

---

Worth noting that today 6.6 million people filed first time unemployment.

The Dow was up 469 points.

BC

Also worth noting that last week's unemployment was revised upward by 219k.  Now at 16,780,000 first time unemployment claims in three weeks.