[magnus]

I think I recall one of the UW virologists Trevor Bedford had a thread that suggested slow genetic drift. Like perhaps substantial over a period of perhaps 4 years. But since immunity may wane over time, a booster may be necessary, and in that scenario could require updates over time as well. Will be very interesting to see what future holds as we learn more about this virus and our immune response to it.

Yup, I remember reading that from him

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https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/290...es-vaccine

Things are not going back to "normal" for a long time.

I wonder what sample population they polled.  Guessing numbers in SEC country would be much different.

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There are two kinds of ways of thinking about when to lift the lockdown:
1) People who hate the lockdown, and want to lift it as soon as possible, as soon as the tools to contain it are in place, including enough ventilators, enough testing, enough contact tracing, enough ppe.
2) People who hate the lockdown, and want to choose an arbitrary date of when to lift it, regardless of whether there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough contact tracing, enough quarantining, enough testing.

I don't think ventilators will factor into group #1's thinking.  Ventilators just help reduce excess death from the virus.  But those in #1 probably don't want to even see the "ideal" number of deaths that the virus would cause.  If these other tools can reduce the projected death count to an acceptable number, ventilators will not be an issue.

[magnus]

I think I recall one of the UW virologists Trevor Bedford had a thread that suggested slow genetic drift. Like perhaps substantial over a period of perhaps 4 years. But since immunity may wane over time, a booster may be necessary, and in that scenario could require updates over time as well. Will be very interesting to see what future holds as we learn more about this virus and our immune response to it.

Yup, I remember reading that from him

---

https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/290...es-vaccine

Things are not going back to "normal" for a long time.

I wonder what sample population they polled.  Guessing numbers in SEC country would be much different.

---

There are two kinds of ways of thinking about when to lift the lockdown:
1) People who hate the lockdown, and want to lift it as soon as possible, as soon as the tools to contain it are in place, including enough ventilators, enough testing, enough contact tracing, enough ppe.
2) People who hate the lockdown, and want to choose an arbitrary date of when to lift it, regardless of whether there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough contact tracing, enough quarantining, enough testing.

I don't think ventilators will factor into group #1's thinking.  Ventilators just help reduce excess death from the virus.  But those in #1 probably don't want to even see the "ideal" number of deaths that the virus would cause.  If these other tools can reduce the projected death count to an acceptable number, ventilators will not be an issue.