[BostonCard]

Here's a paper arguing the denominator is much larger than we thought.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20050542v1

Short version, if you look at reports of "influenza like illness" but scale it for the proportion of tests that are positive, you find that there was a lot of unexplained illness out there, that might be mildly symptomatic Covid-19.  According to the authors, just in the week starting on March 15, 2020 there may have been up to 10 million Covid-19 cases presenting as mild flu.  If that's the case, the denominator is much larger than we thought and the CFR (as these are symptomatic patients) may be closer to 0.1% than 2%.

This Economist article summarizes the paper well:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...-good-news

BC

[BostonCard]

Here's a paper arguing the denominator is much larger than we thought.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20050542v1

Short version, if you look at reports of "influenza like illness" but scale it for the proportion of tests that are positive, you find that there was a lot of unexplained illness out there, that might be mildly symptomatic Covid-19.  According to the authors, just in the week starting on March 15, 2020 there may have been up to 10 million Covid-19 cases presenting as mild flu.  If that's the case, the denominator is much larger than we thought and the CFR (as these are symptomatic patients) may be closer to 0.1% than 2%.

This Economist article summarizes the paper well:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail...-good-news

BC