04-10-2020, 08:12 AM
Want to start the economy ASAP?
Then a few things need to happen.
#1 - The citizens need to be confident they can do most of their normal things with minimal risk.
Vaccines would be best, but that's 12-24 months out. So N/A.
The next best alternative is massive testing and tracing for the virus and antibodies.
I would not expect CA, WA, NY, NJ, or MI to break their state efforts without detailed plans to test and trace most citizens.
USA economic rebound will not happen if CA, WA, NY NJ and MI are all sitting it out.
#2 - The government would need to really outline which activities are too risky, too likely to cause another outbreak
For example, sporting events, funerals, weddings and church services are already established no-nos.
And yet, those very things are on POTUS45's wish list.
The list goes on and on.
It's not happening. POTUS45's advisers know it's not happening. The game now is to sit here in April and May claiming he WANTED it to happen. That way when unemployment is at 25%, or more, the re-election campaign can claim they wanted to pursue the other path even if they know that other path was never really viable.
All of that noted - I do want to swing this back to Stanford Athletics....
I sincerely doubt there will be any college athletics for the balance of 2020. However, if there was a Stanford Football season. How many of you would attend games?
For me, the home game schedule does not have a single game worth the COVID-19 risk.
I probably would hope to go to Big Game while wearing the PPE one might find in a surgical setting, but if there is even a hint of a re-emergence in November I would skip the event.
For me the other social events key to a recovery are not even on the table until a vaccine is available.
Restaurants - No way
Musical Concerts- Never
Sporting Events - Not gonna happen
Brick and Mortar Sshopping for discretionary items - See Ya in 2022
Will there be some that just trust they are invincible? Sure.
But if even 10-20% of the citizens take my view the economy would be in a recession for several quarters.
I am highly confident more than 10-20% share my risk assessment here.
I am also confident POTUS45's financially oriented advisory group knows this too.
At this point the POTUS45 team members are just "Cheerleading" for something they know won't happen.
That way when the depression level reality hits in Q3 they can claim at political events that they tried to take a different path.
The believers will see the positives the other path would have had like SEC football, NASCAR races and music concerts.
Since it didn't actually happen they will discount the negatives associated with the millions that would have died.
This is much like a group of cheerleaders screaming for the team to score and win while down 3-38 with 3 minutes left in the game.
They might claim they were trying to inspire the team to the bitter end, but at some point the cheers just make them look clueless.
And at that point the fans in the stands really begin to understand that a great coach or a clever QB are a lot better than loud cheerleaders.
Then a few things need to happen.
#1 - The citizens need to be confident they can do most of their normal things with minimal risk.
Vaccines would be best, but that's 12-24 months out. So N/A.
The next best alternative is massive testing and tracing for the virus and antibodies.
I would not expect CA, WA, NY, NJ, or MI to break their state efforts without detailed plans to test and trace most citizens.
USA economic rebound will not happen if CA, WA, NY NJ and MI are all sitting it out.
#2 - The government would need to really outline which activities are too risky, too likely to cause another outbreak
For example, sporting events, funerals, weddings and church services are already established no-nos.
And yet, those very things are on POTUS45's wish list.
The list goes on and on.
It's not happening. POTUS45's advisers know it's not happening. The game now is to sit here in April and May claiming he WANTED it to happen. That way when unemployment is at 25%, or more, the re-election campaign can claim they wanted to pursue the other path even if they know that other path was never really viable.
All of that noted - I do want to swing this back to Stanford Athletics....
I sincerely doubt there will be any college athletics for the balance of 2020. However, if there was a Stanford Football season. How many of you would attend games?
For me, the home game schedule does not have a single game worth the COVID-19 risk.
I probably would hope to go to Big Game while wearing the PPE one might find in a surgical setting, but if there is even a hint of a re-emergence in November I would skip the event.
For me the other social events key to a recovery are not even on the table until a vaccine is available.
Restaurants - No way
Musical Concerts- Never
Sporting Events - Not gonna happen
Brick and Mortar Sshopping for discretionary items - See Ya in 2022
Will there be some that just trust they are invincible? Sure.
But if even 10-20% of the citizens take my view the economy would be in a recession for several quarters.
I am highly confident more than 10-20% share my risk assessment here.
I am also confident POTUS45's financially oriented advisory group knows this too.
At this point the POTUS45 team members are just "Cheerleading" for something they know won't happen.
That way when the depression level reality hits in Q3 they can claim at political events that they tried to take a different path.
The believers will see the positives the other path would have had like SEC football, NASCAR races and music concerts.
Since it didn't actually happen they will discount the negatives associated with the millions that would have died.
This is much like a group of cheerleaders screaming for the team to score and win while down 3-38 with 3 minutes left in the game.
They might claim they were trying to inspire the team to the bitter end, but at some point the cheers just make them look clueless.
And at that point the fans in the stands really begin to understand that a great coach or a clever QB are a lot better than loud cheerleaders.