[burger]

good post, Farm93.

In the short term, I think almost all businesses will be able to reopen provided they keep the protective measures that grocery stores are now adopting. People are going to have to wear masks in public. Some sporting events with very limited audience might be ok, if the athletes can be tested with 15 minute results (kind of like the old fingernail check in water polo before the game). I could see going to a soccer match at the Q with about 5-10% of capacity allowed in, and me wearing my mask. At some point, those measures might become optional, and then people who are most concerned (like me) will continue them, and businesses that want my business will keep them, too. All to buy enough time to get effective treatment and vaccine available. And with sufficient testing surveillance to know when virus spread is increasing in a particular area, to tighten up the measures again.

Doesn't that still imply a giant loss of jobs and, essentially, a permanent recession?  Half-full restaurants only need half the staff.  Quarter-full stadiums provide 1/4 the revenue.  Flights at 60% capacity means grounding a lot of planes if it's going to be profitable for the airlines. 

I am increasingly certain that there is no solution to the economic hit until we have a vaccine or hit herd-immunity levels of infection.  If the ongoing social distancing is mandatory, it essentially puts a cap on how many jobs the economy can create.  Scott Gottlieb, Trump's earlier FDA commissioner thinks that 80% of the economy can return if we open up again soon.  A 20% hit to the economy is still near great depression levels. 

Voluntary social distancing is still going to be a thing, too.  As Farm93 pointed out, a lot of people (including my family) will not be doing anything unnecessary in public until there is a vaccine or a cure.  Again, even if only 20% of people isolated themselves, we're looking at a depression, at least in a lot of service sectors.

If you are thinking that contact tracing will save us, I'd encourage you to read this article, which probably deserves its own thread: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/c...employment

[burger]

good post, Farm93.

In the short term, I think almost all businesses will be able to reopen provided they keep the protective measures that grocery stores are now adopting. People are going to have to wear masks in public. Some sporting events with very limited audience might be ok, if the athletes can be tested with 15 minute results (kind of like the old fingernail check in water polo before the game). I could see going to a soccer match at the Q with about 5-10% of capacity allowed in, and me wearing my mask. At some point, those measures might become optional, and then people who are most concerned (like me) will continue them, and businesses that want my business will keep them, too. All to buy enough time to get effective treatment and vaccine available. And with sufficient testing surveillance to know when virus spread is increasing in a particular area, to tighten up the measures again.

Doesn't that still imply a giant loss of jobs and, essentially, a permanent recession?  Half-full restaurants only need half the staff.  Quarter-full stadiums provide 1/4 the revenue.  Flights at 60% capacity means grounding a lot of planes if it's going to be profitable for the airlines. 

I am increasingly certain that there is no solution to the economic hit until we have a vaccine or hit herd-immunity levels of infection.  If the ongoing social distancing is mandatory, it essentially puts a cap on how many jobs the economy can create.  Scott Gottlieb, Trump's earlier FDA commissioner thinks that 80% of the economy can return if we open up again soon.  A 20% hit to the economy is still near great depression levels. 

Voluntary social distancing is still going to be a thing, too.  As Farm93 pointed out, a lot of people (including my family) will not be doing anything unnecessary in public until there is a vaccine or a cure.  Again, even if only 20% of people isolated themselves, we're looking at a depression, at least in a lot of service sectors.

If you are thinking that contact tracing will save us, I'd encourage you to read this article, which probably deserves its own thread: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/c...employment