[teejers1]

Yeah, no way was this in our communities in big numbers before February. We would have seen filled up ICUs a lot earlier if so given how virulent this disease is.

We all wish that bad cold we had was this, but odds are much greater it was just a bad cold, because they are just far more common. Even now, positive test rates are in the low teens in California, and those are symptomatic patients. In NYC it's more like 40 to 50%. Caveat being we dont know just how accurate these tests all are.

I believe you are correct.  But Mick's post reminded me of a grad school buddy living in S.F.  When the COVID 19 announcement and shut-in came down, his reaction was "Hello, this has been in SF for months.  I've had 6 people tell me they had the worst flu of their lives in the last couple months."  Think a bad flu bug hit SF in lat 2019.

[teejers1]

Yeah, no way was this in our communities in big numbers before February. We would have seen filled up ICUs a lot earlier if so given how virulent this disease is.

We all wish that bad cold we had was this, but odds are much greater it was just a bad cold, because they are just far more common. Even now, positive test rates are in the low teens in California, and those are symptomatic patients. In NYC it's more like 40 to 50%. Caveat being we dont know just how accurate these tests all are.

I believe you are correct.  But Mick's post reminded me of a grad school buddy living in S.F.  When the COVID 19 announcement and shut-in came down, his reaction was "Hello, this has been in SF for months.  I've had 6 people tell me they had the worst flu of their lives in the last couple months."  Think a bad flu bug hit SF in lat 2019.