[Genuine Realist]

I think we can pretty definitively rule out widespread prevalence of SARS-CoV2 in the Bay Area before March, based on a new study from Stanford.  The virology retrospectively looked at its respiratory samples collected January 1 to February 26 for all patients who were negative for other respiratory viruses.  Out of 2740 samples, they found 2 (<0.1% were positive).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...ultClick=1

Of the two that were positive samples, one was from Feb 17-23 and one was from Feb 24-26.  There were no positive samples before February 16.

A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020. The 2 positive samples showed detection of E and RdRp. Sanger sequencing revealed 100% identity with the SARS-CoV-2 E gene. Only 1 pool showed a positive E signal that was not reproducible with testing of the individual samples of that pool.

Here's the study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...ultClick=1

So Mick, whatever flattened you at the end of last year was probably not COVID-19 (though if a serology test is available, by all means go for it), and akiddoc, all those kids coming in with hacking cough almost certainly didn't have COVID-19 either.

BC

H-ll, Mick, don't worry about drowning. The fall will probably kill ya.

[Genuine Realist]

I think we can pretty definitively rule out widespread prevalence of SARS-CoV2 in the Bay Area before March, based on a new study from Stanford.  The virology retrospectively looked at its respiratory samples collected January 1 to February 26 for all patients who were negative for other respiratory viruses.  Out of 2740 samples, they found 2 (<0.1% were positive).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...ultClick=1

Of the two that were positive samples, one was from Feb 17-23 and one was from Feb 24-26.  There were no positive samples before February 16.

A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020. The 2 positive samples showed detection of E and RdRp. Sanger sequencing revealed 100% identity with the SARS-CoV-2 E gene. Only 1 pool showed a positive E signal that was not reproducible with testing of the individual samples of that pool.

Here's the study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...ultClick=1

So Mick, whatever flattened you at the end of last year was probably not COVID-19 (though if a serology test is available, by all means go for it), and akiddoc, all those kids coming in with hacking cough almost certainly didn't have COVID-19 either.

BC

H-ll, Mick, don't worry about drowning. The fall will probably kill ya.