[2006alum]

Very interesting, and good news if true! There's a few caveats that make me a bit skeptical of being able to extrapolate to that extent:

Of the 29 women who had been asymptomatic but who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, fever developed in 3 (10%) before postpartum discharge (median length of stay, 2 days). Two of these patients received antibiotics for presumed endomyometritis (although 1 patient did not have localizing symptoms), and 1 patient was presumed to be febrile due to Covid-19 and received supportive care. One patient with a swab that was negative for SARS-CoV-2 on admission became symptomatic postpartum; repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing 3 days after the initial test was positive.

If I'm reading this correctly, of the 29 asymptomatic women, 3 developed symptoms within 2 days, so we're really only talking 26 of 33. At least one patient who tested negative actually had it (and became symptomatic), so then we're talking 26 of 34 (that's 75%, within the prior estimated range). And none of the patients were tracked after postpartum discharge (median length of stay 2 days), so in theory some could have (and probably did) develop symptoms later.

This is exactly the kind of data we need, but when the virus has a median pre-symptomatic infection window of 5 days and infected individuals can go as long as two weeks before showing symptoms, I feel like it's a bit tenuous to extrapolate so far from a testing and symptom presentation window of just 2-3 days?

[2006alum]

Very interesting, and good news if true! There's a few caveats that make me a bit skeptical of being able to extrapolate to that extent:

Of the 29 women who had been asymptomatic but who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, fever developed in 3 (10%) before postpartum discharge (median length of stay, 2 days). Two of these patients received antibiotics for presumed endomyometritis (although 1 patient did not have localizing symptoms), and 1 patient was presumed to be febrile due to Covid-19 and received supportive care. One patient with a swab that was negative for SARS-CoV-2 on admission became symptomatic postpartum; repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing 3 days after the initial test was positive.

If I'm reading this correctly, of the 29 asymptomatic women, 3 developed symptoms within 2 days, so we're really only talking 26 of 33. At least one patient who tested negative actually had it (and became symptomatic), so then we're talking 26 of 34 (that's 75%, within the prior estimated range). And none of the patients were tracked after postpartum discharge (median length of stay 2 days), so in theory some could have (and probably did) develop symptoms later.

This is exactly the kind of data we need, but when the virus has a median pre-symptomatic infection window of 5 days and infected individuals can go as long as two weeks before showing symptoms, I feel like it's a bit tenuous to extrapolate so far from a testing and symptom presentation window of just 2-3 days?