[burger]

Fun with math:

This study: 33/215 = 15.3% of pregnant women infected.

For all of New York City: 106,763 positive tests / 8.4 million residents= 1.3%

That implies that there are 12 times as many infections as reported positives (with lots of assumptions about susceptibility, behavior, etc.).  More than a couple of studies have produced estimates along those lines.  I was skeptical earlier, but now I'm starting to think that multiplying positive cases by ~10 gives you a decent estimate of the number infected.  In the US that would put the number at ~6 million.  That feels kind of high to me, but I've been assuming an infection mortality rate around 1-2%.  6 million cases in the US makes sense if the mortality rate is an order of magnitude lower.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what the multipliers end up being once we get serology tests.

[burger]

Fun with math:

This study: 33/215 = 15.3% of pregnant women infected.

For all of New York City: 106,763 positive tests / 8.4 million residents= 1.3%

That implies that there are 12 times as many infections as reported positives (with lots of assumptions about susceptibility, behavior, etc.).  More than a couple of studies have produced estimates along those lines.  I was skeptical earlier, but now I'm starting to think that multiplying positive cases by ~10 gives you a decent estimate of the number infected.  In the US that would put the number at ~6 million.  That feels kind of high to me, but I've been assuming an infection mortality rate around 1-2%.  6 million cases in the US makes sense if the mortality rate is an order of magnitude lower.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what the multipliers end up being once we get serology tests.