04-14-2020, 06:30 AM
To add some anecdotal support to the 10x assumption...
Three supporting pieces of evidence:
1. Tweet thread from ER Doctor in NY saying only those who come to hospital are tested, and many with symptoms are told to stay home.
2. A fan on Cal Rivals board had all the symptoms - including 10 day fever and was told to stay home; never tested.
3. A friend of a friend had all the symptoms, tried going to see doctor and was told to stay home because she was not sick enough; never tested.
Basically, as long as you can still breathe you are told to stay home, which means you don't get tested. I'm operating on the 10x infected assumption, but that's still just 2% of the population. It just once again highlights how important testing and contact tracing is going to be.
Three supporting pieces of evidence:
1. Tweet thread from ER Doctor in NY saying only those who come to hospital are tested, and many with symptoms are told to stay home.
2. A fan on Cal Rivals board had all the symptoms - including 10 day fever and was told to stay home; never tested.
3. A friend of a friend had all the symptoms, tried going to see doctor and was told to stay home because she was not sick enough; never tested.
Basically, as long as you can still breathe you are told to stay home, which means you don't get tested. I'm operating on the 10x infected assumption, but that's still just 2% of the population. It just once again highlights how important testing and contact tracing is going to be.