[BostonCard]

To add some anecdotal support to the 10x assumption...



Three supporting pieces of evidence:



1. Tweet thread from ER Doctor in NY saying only those who come to hospital are tested, and many with symptoms are told to stay home.



2. A fan on Cal Rivals board had all the symptoms - including 10 day fever and was told to stay home; never tested.



3. A friend of a friend had all the symptoms, tried going to see doctor and was told to stay home because she was not sick enough; never tested.



Basically, as long as you can still breathe you are told to stay home, which means you don't get tested. I'm operating on the 10x infected assumption, but that's still just 2% of the population. It just once again highlights how important testing and contact tracing is going to be.

No doubt there are a lot of patients out there who have COVID-19 and have never been tested.  We know that based on reported deaths the infected rate is higher than reported.  The question is how much higher.  Is it 10x higher?  NY has about 10,000 deaths (plus some that are unreported) and 200,000 reported cases.  If the ultimate CFR is 1 - 2% that implies that there are at least 500,000 to 1,000,000 symptomatic infected patients (at least because some infected patients haven't died yet).  If you presume that about half of patients who are infected are symptomatic, that means up to 2 million infected people in New York, out of a total population of <20 million, so 10% of the population.

I think it is somewhat unlikely that more than half of the population in New York has been infected silently (it would be great if it has been), but I can easily believe that 2 million infected with an ultimate CFR of 0.5% to 1%, and maybe lower.

BC

[BostonCard]

To add some anecdotal support to the 10x assumption...



Three supporting pieces of evidence:



1. Tweet thread from ER Doctor in NY saying only those who come to hospital are tested, and many with symptoms are told to stay home.



2. A fan on Cal Rivals board had all the symptoms - including 10 day fever and was told to stay home; never tested.



3. A friend of a friend had all the symptoms, tried going to see doctor and was told to stay home because she was not sick enough; never tested.



Basically, as long as you can still breathe you are told to stay home, which means you don't get tested. I'm operating on the 10x infected assumption, but that's still just 2% of the population. It just once again highlights how important testing and contact tracing is going to be.

No doubt there are a lot of patients out there who have COVID-19 and have never been tested.  We know that based on reported deaths the infected rate is higher than reported.  The question is how much higher.  Is it 10x higher?  NY has about 10,000 deaths (plus some that are unreported) and 200,000 reported cases.  If the ultimate CFR is 1 - 2% that implies that there are at least 500,000 to 1,000,000 symptomatic infected patients (at least because some infected patients haven't died yet).  If you presume that about half of patients who are infected are symptomatic, that means up to 2 million infected people in New York, out of a total population of <20 million, so 10% of the population.

I think it is somewhat unlikely that more than half of the population in New York has been infected silently (it would be great if it has been), but I can easily believe that 2 million infected with an ultimate CFR of 0.5% to 1%, and maybe lower.

BC