[teejers1]

It's a big deal because knowing when it is introduced helps track spread.  I posted this earlier, but I'll do it again, since it directly answers the question:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321[/tweet]

Yeah, see, I viewed this tweet as an example of someone who seems vested in the late January start date and simply declares it to be so (though I have no doubt author bases it on data).  And I believe that is very, very likely true.  However, I'm just wondering why it is completely beyond the realm of possibility that people had it prior to that, thinking it was 'worst flu ever,' but never went to hospital and recovered.  Is it because there absolutely would had to have been deaths (at abnormal levels), which would have led to earlier discovery?  That makes intuitive sense, certainly. But is it possible that bad cases, even if they go into the hospital, are never properly diagnosed?  Or is that not possible?

[teejers1]

It's a big deal because knowing when it is introduced helps track spread.  I posted this earlier, but I'll do it again, since it directly answers the question:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321[/tweet]

Yeah, see, I viewed this tweet as an example of someone who seems vested in the late January start date and simply declares it to be so (though I have no doubt author bases it on data).  And I believe that is very, very likely true.  However, I'm just wondering why it is completely beyond the realm of possibility that people had it prior to that, thinking it was 'worst flu ever,' but never went to hospital and recovered.  Is it because there absolutely would had to have been deaths (at abnormal levels), which would have led to earlier discovery?  That makes intuitive sense, certainly. But is it possible that bad cases, even if they go into the hospital, are never properly diagnosed?  Or is that not possible?