[CardinalSagehen]

Iceland: 13.3% attack rate, 0.2% IFR.

While I agree with your broad point, the attack rate you quote is based on a selected sample; patients with symptoms and travel to high risk areas or contacts of infected patients.  The overall attack rate is maybe 4000 (1221 who were diagnosed based on symptoms plus somewhere between 2-3000 undetected cases based on the random samples)/364,000 or about 1.1%.

That unfortunately is not enough herd immunity to make much of a difference.

One other datapoint, the town of Vó, Italy, where all 3000 residents were tested and 95 tested positive (attack rate of 3%).  It had 1 death, so an IFR of about 1%, but very small sample size.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...aincontent

BC

Yes, thank you for clarifying and reminding me of that.  In addition, the other samples (cruise ship, Navy vessel, Gangelt) were in known hot-spots - not representative of most places right now.  But still encouraging...

Update: Confirmed the Gangelt sample was random.  They literally sampled 1/24th of the people in a town of 12,000.  
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test...tion-rate/

While I don't know the details of Gangelt, I don't think it's all that much of a stretch to think that Manhattan might be as "hot" of a hot-spot as Gangelt.  

Perhaps this also foreshadows what the Stanford antibody study will show.

[CardinalSagehen]

Iceland: 13.3% attack rate, 0.2% IFR.

While I agree with your broad point, the attack rate you quote is based on a selected sample; patients with symptoms and travel to high risk areas or contacts of infected patients.  The overall attack rate is maybe 4000 (1221 who were diagnosed based on symptoms plus somewhere between 2-3000 undetected cases based on the random samples)/364,000 or about 1.1%.

That unfortunately is not enough herd immunity to make much of a difference.

One other datapoint, the town of Vó, Italy, where all 3000 residents were tested and 95 tested positive (attack rate of 3%).  It had 1 death, so an IFR of about 1%, but very small sample size.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...aincontent

BC

Yes, thank you for clarifying and reminding me of that.  In addition, the other samples (cruise ship, Navy vessel, Gangelt) were in known hot-spots - not representative of most places right now.  But still encouraging...

Update: Confirmed the Gangelt sample was random.  They literally sampled 1/24th of the people in a town of 12,000.  
https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test...tion-rate/

While I don't know the details of Gangelt, I don't think it's all that much of a stretch to think that Manhattan might be as "hot" of a hot-spot as Gangelt.  

Perhaps this also foreshadows what the Stanford antibody study will show.