[stupac2]

I think it is a bit premature to write off fall sports.  We are 143 from Stanford's kickoff against William and Mary.  143 days before today was November 22, 2019, and if Covid-19 was already spreading in humans, nobody knew yet.

I don't think the disease will be licked by then, but in even two months the landscape may look dramatically different, as it did from two months ago to today.

BC

Except that the things that are uncertain about the future from right now are basically political. Sports are conceivable if we have the test/trace/isolate paradigm in place, but probably not without it (except for some minor ones that allow social distancing). So your optimism about whether they can happen is basically your optimism about the capabilities of our politicians. So, uh, yeah, I'm not super optimistic.

Back in November the uncertainty about today was mainly due to "black swan" events. Of course one did happen, but the fact that it happened has no bearing on what we'd expect to happen going forward. We black swanned our way into this, but we're not going to black swan our way out.

[stupac2]

I think it is a bit premature to write off fall sports.  We are 143 from Stanford's kickoff against William and Mary.  143 days before today was November 22, 2019, and if Covid-19 was already spreading in humans, nobody knew yet.

I don't think the disease will be licked by then, but in even two months the landscape may look dramatically different, as it did from two months ago to today.

BC

Except that the things that are uncertain about the future from right now are basically political. Sports are conceivable if we have the test/trace/isolate paradigm in place, but probably not without it (except for some minor ones that allow social distancing). So your optimism about whether they can happen is basically your optimism about the capabilities of our politicians. So, uh, yeah, I'm not super optimistic.

Back in November the uncertainty about today was mainly due to "black swan" events. Of course one did happen, but the fact that it happened has no bearing on what we'd expect to happen going forward. We black swanned our way into this, but we're not going to black swan our way out.