[Farm93]

I think it is a bit premature to write off fall sports.  We are 143 from Stanford's kickoff against William and Mary.  143 days before today was November 22, 2019, and if Covid-19 was already spreading in humans, nobody knew yet.

I don't think the disease will be licked by then, but in even two months the landscape may look dramatically different, as it did from two months ago to today.

BC

Except that the things that are uncertain about the future from right now are basically political. Sports are conceivable if we have the test/trace/isolate paradigm in place, but probably not without it (except for some minor ones that allow social distancing). So your optimism about whether they can happen is basically your optimism about the capabilities of our politicians. So, uh, yeah, I'm not super optimistic.

Back in November the uncertainty about today was mainly due to "black swan" events. Of course one did happen, but the fact that it happened has no bearing on what we'd expect to happen going forward. We black swanned our way into this, but we're not going to black swan our way out.

Exactly stupac2!

Governor Cuomo's conference today outlined just how impossible the testing and tracing will be for NY.   If any single state is unable to do the testing, tracing and isolation required then the NCAA will likely need to skip the season for the entire USA.  Maybe NCAA could skip over ND or SD, but not NY or MA or VA.

NY, PA, MA have a lot of colleges.   If those states are struggling to do testing and tracing for critical industries, I just don't see them stopping those efforts to allocate resources to test college kids playing field hockey each week.   And Title IX would suggest if a school/state can't provide resources for the women's sports then they can't do it for the men's sports.   

We shall see, but unless there is a drug treatment for COVID19 patients I would be big money on....
1) College dorms remaining closed in at least a few states as they are essentially ground based cruise ships.
2) No field hockey, and therefore no other NCAA sports.

[Farm93]

I think it is a bit premature to write off fall sports.  We are 143 from Stanford's kickoff against William and Mary.  143 days before today was November 22, 2019, and if Covid-19 was already spreading in humans, nobody knew yet.

I don't think the disease will be licked by then, but in even two months the landscape may look dramatically different, as it did from two months ago to today.

BC

Except that the things that are uncertain about the future from right now are basically political. Sports are conceivable if we have the test/trace/isolate paradigm in place, but probably not without it (except for some minor ones that allow social distancing). So your optimism about whether they can happen is basically your optimism about the capabilities of our politicians. So, uh, yeah, I'm not super optimistic.

Back in November the uncertainty about today was mainly due to "black swan" events. Of course one did happen, but the fact that it happened has no bearing on what we'd expect to happen going forward. We black swanned our way into this, but we're not going to black swan our way out.

Exactly stupac2!

Governor Cuomo's conference today outlined just how impossible the testing and tracing will be for NY.   If any single state is unable to do the testing, tracing and isolation required then the NCAA will likely need to skip the season for the entire USA.  Maybe NCAA could skip over ND or SD, but not NY or MA or VA.

NY, PA, MA have a lot of colleges.   If those states are struggling to do testing and tracing for critical industries, I just don't see them stopping those efforts to allocate resources to test college kids playing field hockey each week.   And Title IX would suggest if a school/state can't provide resources for the women's sports then they can't do it for the men's sports.   

We shall see, but unless there is a drug treatment for COVID19 patients I would be big money on....
1) College dorms remaining closed in at least a few states as they are essentially ground based cruise ships.
2) No field hockey, and therefore no other NCAA sports.