[akiddoc]

It's a $19.2 billion industry, rivaling the NFL (and that doesn't include the booze and food parents eat during endless swim meets). How does it get going again? Economically, it's important; health wise, it's important too. I think it's important from a mental health standpoint, as well.

Dance, musical theatre, etc. are in the same boat. The kids need them, the economy needs them, and as a parent, I need them.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-relea...ights.html

I am on a local youth sport organization board.   We (OK mainly me) tried hard in early March to tell our group that we should be done for the season. 

As I understand it until this past weekend our Southern California geographic sub-division just below the national level was still holding out hope for May activities and tournaments.   This is an organization without a lot of fixed costs, so I can only guess that those sports programs with lots of fixed costs really hope this will end ASAP.
 
There are a few different organizational structures in play.  
Some are largely volunteer based utilizing community facilities on a use or seasonal basis with precious few fixed costs.   In most cases those organizations can just suspend activities and resume when cities open their fields to organized sports.   

Other organizations pay coaches or trainers, but generally that compensation is tied to hours actively coaching on the field.  Most organizations would not provide compensation and realistically there is little risk of losing their coaches because there aren't other groups looking for help right now.

For some sports and elite levels for other sports there are probably more fixed costs for facilities and equipment, but I would guess very few of those firms have a lot of debt.   If a firm does have those types of fixed costs, they might be in trouble as I doubt most of them have business models that could absorb 3-6 months without any revenue.

Moving on to the kids.   My general pitch is that athletic activity as a child is really critical foundation for a healthy lifestyle.   Win or lose on any given weekend is not as critical as staying active, learning about teamwork, etc. etc. 

However, I wouldn't use that promotional pitch right now.   Staying alive carries the day.   Team sports probably will not bring a lot of COVID19 risks for the 5-16 year old children common in youth sports, but could bring big risks for their sub-5 siblings, the parents or the grandparents.

I am sure a lot of families will try to do things as a family unit to stay healthy and fit this summer and will re-assess once things settle down.  There is no doubt in my mind at all that the rates for obesity will increase in 2020 and that this particular generation of children will become the most obese yet if they go two or three pre-vaccine years without organized sports but with more video gaming.

There are some sports that are in big trouble. We'll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport. Coronavirus will be aerosolized big time there. Gymnastics teams are usually supported by large recreational programs that support the much smaller number on the competitive team. My son's age group gym has 1500 recreational gymnasts and 85 team members. The head coaches and a couple of the assistants are full time. I don't know how they are going to get back where they were over the next 5 years. People won't want their kids around so many other children. 

Like many other parts of life, we'll have to decide as a society how much risk we will accept. Americans want zero risk. There is no such thing. Luckily, the risk to children is probably going to be similar to the risk from influenza. Or maybe less.

[akiddoc]

It's a $19.2 billion industry, rivaling the NFL (and that doesn't include the booze and food parents eat during endless swim meets). How does it get going again? Economically, it's important; health wise, it's important too. I think it's important from a mental health standpoint, as well.

Dance, musical theatre, etc. are in the same boat. The kids need them, the economy needs them, and as a parent, I need them.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-relea...ights.html

I am on a local youth sport organization board.   We (OK mainly me) tried hard in early March to tell our group that we should be done for the season. 

As I understand it until this past weekend our Southern California geographic sub-division just below the national level was still holding out hope for May activities and tournaments.   This is an organization without a lot of fixed costs, so I can only guess that those sports programs with lots of fixed costs really hope this will end ASAP.
 
There are a few different organizational structures in play.  
Some are largely volunteer based utilizing community facilities on a use or seasonal basis with precious few fixed costs.   In most cases those organizations can just suspend activities and resume when cities open their fields to organized sports.   

Other organizations pay coaches or trainers, but generally that compensation is tied to hours actively coaching on the field.  Most organizations would not provide compensation and realistically there is little risk of losing their coaches because there aren't other groups looking for help right now.

For some sports and elite levels for other sports there are probably more fixed costs for facilities and equipment, but I would guess very few of those firms have a lot of debt.   If a firm does have those types of fixed costs, they might be in trouble as I doubt most of them have business models that could absorb 3-6 months without any revenue.

Moving on to the kids.   My general pitch is that athletic activity as a child is really critical foundation for a healthy lifestyle.   Win or lose on any given weekend is not as critical as staying active, learning about teamwork, etc. etc. 

However, I wouldn't use that promotional pitch right now.   Staying alive carries the day.   Team sports probably will not bring a lot of COVID19 risks for the 5-16 year old children common in youth sports, but could bring big risks for their sub-5 siblings, the parents or the grandparents.

I am sure a lot of families will try to do things as a family unit to stay healthy and fit this summer and will re-assess once things settle down.  There is no doubt in my mind at all that the rates for obesity will increase in 2020 and that this particular generation of children will become the most obese yet if they go two or three pre-vaccine years without organized sports but with more video gaming.

There are some sports that are in big trouble. We'll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport. Coronavirus will be aerosolized big time there. Gymnastics teams are usually supported by large recreational programs that support the much smaller number on the competitive team. My son's age group gym has 1500 recreational gymnasts and 85 team members. The head coaches and a couple of the assistants are full time. I don't know how they are going to get back where they were over the next 5 years. People won't want their kids around so many other children. 

Like many other parts of life, we'll have to decide as a society how much risk we will accept. Americans want zero risk. There is no such thing. Luckily, the risk to children is probably going to be similar to the risk from influenza. Or maybe less.