[2006alum]

New paper from Chinese researchers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

Almost half of secondary cases were infected while the index case was presymptomatic.  In other words, #&$@!

BC

Yeah, that's terrifying, because short of randomized, nondiscriminatory rapid testing, how can you possibly stop infectious individuals from unknowingly spreading the virus? This certainly suggests that we're going to need to keep many social distancing measures in place for quite a while for anyone who is in a higher-risk group or does not want a non-zero chance of being laid up in the hospital for several weeks.

[2006alum]

New paper from Chinese researchers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5

We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission.

Almost half of secondary cases were infected while the index case was presymptomatic.  In other words, #&$@!

BC

Yeah, that's terrifying, because short of randomized, nondiscriminatory rapid testing, how can you possibly stop infectious individuals from unknowingly spreading the virus? This certainly suggests that we're going to need to keep many social distancing measures in place for quite a while for anyone who is in a higher-risk group or does not want a non-zero chance of being laid up in the hospital for several weeks.