[chrisk]

Regarding the premise of the post: it’s not like the stock market is “wrong” now at these levels any more than it ever is.

If I believe any stock is way overvalued, I should avoid it or maybe even short sell it.

If I believe any stock is way undervalued, I should buy it.

Either way, the stock market is not right or wrong now any more than it ever is. If I see something that I deeply believe is incorrectly valued, it’s not wrong, it’s an opportunity.

For my part, I think many tech companies are in very good shape and one of my favorite tech companies is very close to its historic highs. I watch hotel stocks sometime and I just don’t get why they haven’t been hit harder — Hyatt and Hilton were going all-in on China until this year, and I don’t see that turning out well for at least 2 years, not to mention a decrease in European and US travel. Also, the vibe I get is that many corporations are going to play it safe on business travel and conferences no matter how low the ifr goes — there will still uncertainty and risk of sending your employees into a regional flareup. But there are relatively few cases like these.

Hotel companies are definitely down more than the market average, but they have an advantage over airlines in that as primarily management companies, they are relatively asset light and have been shedding workers rapidly, unlike airlines. Some hotels have been getting revenue as shelters for the homeless or beds for people who need to be isolated.

[chrisk]

Regarding the premise of the post: it’s not like the stock market is “wrong” now at these levels any more than it ever is.

If I believe any stock is way overvalued, I should avoid it or maybe even short sell it.

If I believe any stock is way undervalued, I should buy it.

Either way, the stock market is not right or wrong now any more than it ever is. If I see something that I deeply believe is incorrectly valued, it’s not wrong, it’s an opportunity.

For my part, I think many tech companies are in very good shape and one of my favorite tech companies is very close to its historic highs. I watch hotel stocks sometime and I just don’t get why they haven’t been hit harder — Hyatt and Hilton were going all-in on China until this year, and I don’t see that turning out well for at least 2 years, not to mention a decrease in European and US travel. Also, the vibe I get is that many corporations are going to play it safe on business travel and conferences no matter how low the ifr goes — there will still uncertainty and risk of sending your employees into a regional flareup. But there are relatively few cases like these.

Hotel companies are definitely down more than the market average, but they have an advantage over airlines in that as primarily management companies, they are relatively asset light and have been shedding workers rapidly, unlike airlines. Some hotels have been getting revenue as shelters for the homeless or beds for people who need to be isolated.