04-17-2020, 04:19 PM
These are strange times, with market forces that will follow what consumers are left with. So I might evaluate the Dow 30 by its industry-by-industry components:
Consumer. Nike, Walgreen's, Home Depot, Wal-Mart, McDonald's, Coca Cola, Procter & Gamble. I think most of these will thrive, given that consumers are and will be in a hoarding mentality for quite a while. McDonald's, maybe not. But the rest will probably thrive. Home Depot recently lost its largest competitor. Walgreen's should do great, same w/P&G, ditto Wal-Mart, Nike sells mainly to the young.
Energy. Chevron and Exxon. I wouldn't invest in either because of the glut and the transportation standstill. Both downers.
Finance. Amex, Goldman Sachs, Travelers, JP Morgan. All four heavily regulated, all four heavily leveraged. Two reasons I'd stay away from Finance. No idea what Feds will do post-coronavirus.
Healthcare/Pharma: Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer. Probably solid investments. God only knows what other medical nightmares are around the corner. Pfizer is working on a vaccine, maybe it hits.
Healthcare/Managed: UnitedHealth. See Finance. Regulated, leveraged. Not for me.
Materials. Dow Chemical. Keeper for me, particularly if we go protectionist, mercantilist, or just anti-one-single-country.
Telecommunications. Verizon. Usually stable.
Consumer. Nike, Walgreen's, Home Depot, Wal-Mart, McDonald's, Coca Cola, Procter & Gamble. I think most of these will thrive, given that consumers are and will be in a hoarding mentality for quite a while. McDonald's, maybe not. But the rest will probably thrive. Home Depot recently lost its largest competitor. Walgreen's should do great, same w/P&G, ditto Wal-Mart, Nike sells mainly to the young.
Energy. Chevron and Exxon. I wouldn't invest in either because of the glut and the transportation standstill. Both downers.
Finance. Amex, Goldman Sachs, Travelers, JP Morgan. All four heavily regulated, all four heavily leveraged. Two reasons I'd stay away from Finance. No idea what Feds will do post-coronavirus.
Healthcare/Pharma: Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer. Probably solid investments. God only knows what other medical nightmares are around the corner. Pfizer is working on a vaccine, maybe it hits.
Healthcare/Managed: UnitedHealth. See Finance. Regulated, leveraged. Not for me.
Materials. Dow Chemical. Keeper for me, particularly if we go protectionist, mercantilist, or just anti-one-single-country.
Telecommunications. Verizon. Usually stable.
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