04-19-2020, 07:12 AM
(04-18-2020, 11:32 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: It seems the data demonstrates there are at least 10x more infections than confirmed cases.
I want to focus on this for a second. I don't think this is correct. There are indications that this might be true in some places. But it would be a mistake to assume that 10x rule of thumb is a good estimate everywhere.
In places that have done very little testing, the multiplier is probably bigger than 10. In places that have done a lot of testing or where you have a lot of susceptible people which means that more people end up in the hospital (where they get tested), the multiplier might be lower.
10x is really just a very, very rough estimate, and the real number will differ from place to place.
