[Goose]

I believe that one factor is being greatly ignored in this discussion, although we are all aware of it. Nothing like this has happened in the US in 100 years. Back then, the idea of a "shutdown" never reached the table. It is always going to be very, very difficult to get people and institutions to respond as if the "impossible" is about to happen. You can't cite a precedent. You have to submit a chain of data and establish that your prediction of events is credible. In hindsight, it will be "obvious", but it was far from obvious before the fact. It was especially difficult in the face of the first SARS forecasts of doom not actually happening (in the US anyway).

Even now, many of the models have not delivered very accurate predictions. This is not surprising, given that this is a "novel" virus. However, when there are lots of unknowns, making decisions on a National or State wide level is not easy and will always be behind events. It is very unfortunate that all politicians today seem to believe the idea of uncertainty is not admissible into public discussions. You have to pick a "side" even when there is little evidence to go on. This causes them to say lots of things that make them look stupid later. Fortunately for these same politicians, the public doesn't seem to care.

[Goose]

I believe that one factor is being greatly ignored in this discussion, although we are all aware of it. Nothing like this has happened in the US in 100 years. Back then, the idea of a "shutdown" never reached the table. It is always going to be very, very difficult to get people and institutions to respond as if the "impossible" is about to happen. You can't cite a precedent. You have to submit a chain of data and establish that your prediction of events is credible. In hindsight, it will be "obvious", but it was far from obvious before the fact. It was especially difficult in the face of the first SARS forecasts of doom not actually happening (in the US anyway).

Even now, many of the models have not delivered very accurate predictions. This is not surprising, given that this is a "novel" virus. However, when there are lots of unknowns, making decisions on a National or State wide level is not easy and will always be behind events. It is very unfortunate that all politicians today seem to believe the idea of uncertainty is not admissible into public discussions. You have to pick a "side" even when there is little evidence to go on. This causes them to say lots of things that make them look stupid later. Fortunately for these same politicians, the public doesn't seem to care.