One false choice I keep hearing in this debate is that people who think re-opening the economy before adequate tracking, tracing, and testing are in place — all part of the Trump Administration’s Step 1 — will somehow help the economy.
People aren’t going to start traveling abroad, packing movie theatres, and filling sports arenas. Those are lost for a year. Without a time machine and a Time Caper, there is no scenario where those magically come back in less than a year.
The argument for reopening things in a prudent manner — and whenever enough testing and tracing is in place — is to avoid an Italy-style catastrophe that would be even worse for the economy.
I do not know of any path where the US is at 3.5% growth and 3% unemployment in Q3.
In the CA plan, the state moves to increase testing, tracing and ppe as quickly as it can, then reopens in 2-6 weeks, worst case 10 weeks.
Covid is contained in CA, and life resumes as it continues in places like Taiwan and Korea, where people are shopping, eating out, working, meeting friends. Kids go to school in Taiwan, and I’m told the theme park is open. In Korea, the numbers are so low I hear some are getting complacent and wearing masks less frequently. No apocalypse. No end of the economy. No Ragnarok. Maybe along the way, another short SIP is needed, but otherwise, many face 2-5 months unemployment (with benefits) along the way and eventually are re-hired. Many former baristas and waiters are now grocery deliverers. Hotel investors, event planners, sports-dependent places, small entertainment centers are unavoidably wiped out. AMC declares bankruptcy, assets are acquired and theatres re-opened by Regal Cinemas in time for the March 2021 release of Black Widow. 12-18 months from now, people are vaccinated.
Here’s how I see a full-on, go straight to herd immunity path looks, assuming you never flinch. For 2 weeks, Georgians bask with well-coiffed hair, freshly manicured nails, and gym-scuplted physiques. But quietly, the Ro is now > 2 again. A fee weeks later, many under 60 feel mild symptoms, and it turns out, with actual cases being 40x confirmed cases for young people, 98% of those under 60 don’t need the hospital. But 2% of the young do. Another 2 weeks later, silently, now 20% of the state’s population is infected, but they don’t know it yet. Another week passes, and the hospitals are overrun. But in this scenario, the state stays the course. The hospitals are overrun. .2% people under 60 die without medical treatment even though the ifr in other states is less than .1%. Another .3% of people 50-60 die without treatment for heart disease or cancer. Another 1% of everyone 25-60 has permanent lung damage that will plague their now-shortened lives. It turns out the brobdingnagian divisor for seniors doesn’t exist — 15% of the elderly die from covid, another 5% die for lack of treatment for other conditions. As the medical system collapses around them, everyone is terrified to leave their home. Even young people — everyone knows someone from their high school who is now dead and was unable to get any treatment. People start eating fish tank cleaner hoping it will cure them, more die. Trump blames China and oddly, the governor of Michigan, calling her “nasty.” Infection rates are so high, even grocery workers and food distributors refuse to work, and tons of food goes to waste. Now people don’t have enough food, but they do have all those guns...
People aren’t going to start traveling abroad, packing movie theatres, and filling sports arenas. Those are lost for a year. Without a time machine and a Time Caper, there is no scenario where those magically come back in less than a year.
The argument for reopening things in a prudent manner — and whenever enough testing and tracing is in place — is to avoid an Italy-style catastrophe that would be even worse for the economy.
I do not know of any path where the US is at 3.5% growth and 3% unemployment in Q3.
In the CA plan, the state moves to increase testing, tracing and ppe as quickly as it can, then reopens in 2-6 weeks, worst case 10 weeks.
Covid is contained in CA, and life resumes as it continues in places like Taiwan and Korea, where people are shopping, eating out, working, meeting friends. Kids go to school in Taiwan, and I’m told the theme park is open. In Korea, the numbers are so low I hear some are getting complacent and wearing masks less frequently. No apocalypse. No end of the economy. No Ragnarok. Maybe along the way, another short SIP is needed, but otherwise, many face 2-5 months unemployment (with benefits) along the way and eventually are re-hired. Many former baristas and waiters are now grocery deliverers. Hotel investors, event planners, sports-dependent places, small entertainment centers are unavoidably wiped out. AMC declares bankruptcy, assets are acquired and theatres re-opened by Regal Cinemas in time for the March 2021 release of Black Widow. 12-18 months from now, people are vaccinated.
Here’s how I see a full-on, go straight to herd immunity path looks, assuming you never flinch. For 2 weeks, Georgians bask with well-coiffed hair, freshly manicured nails, and gym-scuplted physiques. But quietly, the Ro is now > 2 again. A fee weeks later, many under 60 feel mild symptoms, and it turns out, with actual cases being 40x confirmed cases for young people, 98% of those under 60 don’t need the hospital. But 2% of the young do. Another 2 weeks later, silently, now 20% of the state’s population is infected, but they don’t know it yet. Another week passes, and the hospitals are overrun. But in this scenario, the state stays the course. The hospitals are overrun. .2% people under 60 die without medical treatment even though the ifr in other states is less than .1%. Another .3% of people 50-60 die without treatment for heart disease or cancer. Another 1% of everyone 25-60 has permanent lung damage that will plague their now-shortened lives. It turns out the brobdingnagian divisor for seniors doesn’t exist — 15% of the elderly die from covid, another 5% die for lack of treatment for other conditions. As the medical system collapses around them, everyone is terrified to leave their home. Even young people — everyone knows someone from their high school who is now dead and was unable to get any treatment. People start eating fish tank cleaner hoping it will cure them, more die. Trump blames China and oddly, the governor of Michigan, calling her “nasty.” Infection rates are so high, even grocery workers and food distributors refuse to work, and tons of food goes to waste. Now people don’t have enough food, but they do have all those guns...