[chrisk]

Of course, we are going to have more severe consequences than Taiwan. We waited 2 months longer to take serious social distancing and isolation steps.

But loosening up restrictions so that R0 stays above 1, without adequate testing and tracing, is going to drag out the more pain longer and ultimately cost more. The higher short-term cost to fund the social safety net until effective tracking/tracing is in effect will be less than funding required to keep the economy limping along until a vaccine is widely available at some indeterminate time.

Let’s see how many red states blow up over the next 2 months. If a couple or more blow up, I’m glad California didn’t jump the gun.

[chrisk]

Of course, we are going to have more severe consequences than Taiwan. We waited 2 months longer to take serious social distancing and isolation steps.

But loosening up restrictions so that R0 stays above 1, without adequate testing and tracing, is going to drag out the more pain longer and ultimately cost more. The higher short-term cost to fund the social safety net until effective tracking/tracing is in effect will be less than funding required to keep the economy limping along until a vaccine is widely available at some indeterminate time.

Let’s see how many red states blow up over the next 2 months. If a couple or more blow up, I’m glad California didn’t jump the gun.