[Goose]

But loosening up restrictions so that R0 stays above 1, without adequate testing and tracing, is going to drag out the more pain longer and ultimately cost more.  The higher short-term cost to fund the social safety net until effective tracking/tracing is in effect will be less than funding required to keep the economy limping along until a vaccine is widely available at some indeterminate time.

Unfortunately, it isn't entirely clear to me that this is true. I don't think we know this, but I strongly suspect the ECONOMIC cost may be lower if a state has few areas that will be hit hard and many that will not. The social cost of many people dying isn't included in that calculation. A "mixed" strategy of this type could be a reasonable choice, with more business activity, contact tracing and testing in areas with "manageable" disease and a few areas that are war zones. Obviously, NY city being a war zone wouldn't work, and making sure you contain the spread to other areas would be a issue, but it could work, at least in theory.

Let’s see how many red states blow up over the next 2 months.  If a couple or more blow up, I’m glad California didn’t jump the gun.

What will it mean if some do and some don't? Was it bad (too early, under resourced etc.) execution where it did and great execution where it didn't? Or just bad luck? We shall possibly get to find out.

[Goose]

But loosening up restrictions so that R0 stays above 1, without adequate testing and tracing, is going to drag out the more pain longer and ultimately cost more.  The higher short-term cost to fund the social safety net until effective tracking/tracing is in effect will be less than funding required to keep the economy limping along until a vaccine is widely available at some indeterminate time.

Unfortunately, it isn't entirely clear to me that this is true. I don't think we know this, but I strongly suspect the ECONOMIC cost may be lower if a state has few areas that will be hit hard and many that will not. The social cost of many people dying isn't included in that calculation. A "mixed" strategy of this type could be a reasonable choice, with more business activity, contact tracing and testing in areas with "manageable" disease and a few areas that are war zones. Obviously, NY city being a war zone wouldn't work, and making sure you contain the spread to other areas would be a issue, but it could work, at least in theory.

Let’s see how many red states blow up over the next 2 months.  If a couple or more blow up, I’m glad California didn’t jump the gun.

What will it mean if some do and some don't? Was it bad (too early, under resourced etc.) execution where it did and great execution where it didn't? Or just bad luck? We shall possibly get to find out.