(04-21-2020, 12:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
There will be some catch-up growth after this is all over. I guess it will depend to an extent how quickly things pass. But, for example, while most people won't return to restaurants anytime soon, if a few people do, that will represent growth (from a low base).
BC
Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but I thought annualized GDP was a way to compare to the same quarter of the prior year, so annualized 3Q GDP growth is a comparison to GDP in Q3 of 2019? If so, then catching up compared to Q2 is irrelevant to that calculation, right? The base to compare is Q3 of 2019, when restaurants were still thriving and folks were flying to weddings, vacations, etc., as normal. If that's correct, it seems like a leap of faith to think we'll be outpacing that level of production by 20%?
