[BostonCard]

I do not know of any path where the US is at 3.5% growth and 3% unemployment in Q3. 

Goldman Sachs said a month ago that we'll see 12% annualized growth in Q3.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pa...-2020.html

It gets worse - Goldman is now predicting an annualized growth of 19% in Q3.

Like, seriously? Q3 is July-September, which is prime vacation season. They think there's going to be 20% more trips to Disneyland, plane flights, movie theater admissions, restaurant meals, hotel bookings, etc. than in 2019? 

Or do they think everyone's pent up need for haircuts, manicures, and dental cleanings will offset it and then some? They do understand that if you go without your monthly haircut for 3 months, you don't get three haircuts back to back to make up for it, right? 

I'm utterly baffled. Does anyone who pays more attention to macroeconomics than I do care to posit a rationale for yielding that prediction?

"Annualized growth" doesn't mean a growth compared to a year ago.  It means quarter on quarter growth extrapolated for a year.  So, basically, it means 4.4% growth from the previous quarter (Q2).  If extrapolated four quarters, you get 19% growth (1.044 * 1.044 * 1.044 * 1.044 = 1.19).

See this explanation:

https://www.aei.org/economics/no-forecas...s-quarter/

BC

[BostonCard]

I do not know of any path where the US is at 3.5% growth and 3% unemployment in Q3. 

Goldman Sachs said a month ago that we'll see 12% annualized growth in Q3.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pa...-2020.html

It gets worse - Goldman is now predicting an annualized growth of 19% in Q3.

Like, seriously? Q3 is July-September, which is prime vacation season. They think there's going to be 20% more trips to Disneyland, plane flights, movie theater admissions, restaurant meals, hotel bookings, etc. than in 2019? 

Or do they think everyone's pent up need for haircuts, manicures, and dental cleanings will offset it and then some? They do understand that if you go without your monthly haircut for 3 months, you don't get three haircuts back to back to make up for it, right? 

I'm utterly baffled. Does anyone who pays more attention to macroeconomics than I do care to posit a rationale for yielding that prediction?

"Annualized growth" doesn't mean a growth compared to a year ago.  It means quarter on quarter growth extrapolated for a year.  So, basically, it means 4.4% growth from the previous quarter (Q2).  If extrapolated four quarters, you get 19% growth (1.044 * 1.044 * 1.044 * 1.044 = 1.19).

See this explanation:

https://www.aei.org/economics/no-forecas...s-quarter/

BC