[Farm93]

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/20/ca...lassrooms/

Stanford Provost Drell told the Faculty Senate last week that a fall quarter online was one of the scenarios they are considering.

Online is going to happen.

Just imagine the risk with the alternative.   The students go all over the world over the summer and return to campus.   Inevitably some percentage will have COVID19 when they return.   The campus is set up so that everyone jumps into classes shortly after they arrive.   Therefore even if it is only 5 or 10 students they will each have long duration interactions with ~30-50+ students in their dorm and dining hall and a similar number of people in their classes.   The exponential growth potential over a week or two could leave a university in big trouble.  

While the student health is a concern, the bigger reason for the online approach will be the members of the faculty that are 50+ years old.   Office hours, sessions with their grad TA teams, advisory meetings and any small room classes would create opportunities for spread and some of those 50+ year-old faculty members will likely struggle to survive.

How many students and faculty members would need to be sick before the school would need to close?   That type of mid-session closure would be so expensive and so chaotic for everyone. 

The CDC is suggesting the 2nd wave this fall/winter will be worse, so I can only imagine that the 2020-2021 academic year could be an online only deal for a number of schools.  That type of decision will cause a number of other issues with enrollment and lost revenue, but for most schools almost anything will be better than having a hot spot emerge in a college dorm or in a research facility.

[Farm93]

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/04/20/ca...lassrooms/

Stanford Provost Drell told the Faculty Senate last week that a fall quarter online was one of the scenarios they are considering.

Online is going to happen.

Just imagine the risk with the alternative.   The students go all over the world over the summer and return to campus.   Inevitably some percentage will have COVID19 when they return.   The campus is set up so that everyone jumps into classes shortly after they arrive.   Therefore even if it is only 5 or 10 students they will each have long duration interactions with ~30-50+ students in their dorm and dining hall and a similar number of people in their classes.   The exponential growth potential over a week or two could leave a university in big trouble.  

While the student health is a concern, the bigger reason for the online approach will be the members of the faculty that are 50+ years old.   Office hours, sessions with their grad TA teams, advisory meetings and any small room classes would create opportunities for spread and some of those 50+ year-old faculty members will likely struggle to survive.

How many students and faculty members would need to be sick before the school would need to close?   That type of mid-session closure would be so expensive and so chaotic for everyone. 

The CDC is suggesting the 2nd wave this fall/winter will be worse, so I can only imagine that the 2020-2021 academic year could be an online only deal for a number of schools.  That type of decision will cause a number of other issues with enrollment and lost revenue, but for most schools almost anything will be better than having a hot spot emerge in a college dorm or in a research facility.