[Leftcoast]

I'll confidently take the under on that.

I don't see how you get to 800K based upon what we've seen so far. Specifically there is no adjustment for societal changes (Social distancing, masks, other behavior changes), medical treatment improvements (over time treatments will emerge), improved government policy (including test/contact trace, etc) or improvement in infection R or IFR statistics (I'm still hoping for a seasonal slowdown). There's no reason to believe we must follow the 1918 patterns.

Often it seems establishment spokesmen are overly inclined to take the most pessimistic outlook to guide public behavior.  Perhaps they fear giving the public a brighter forward picture will reduce our fervor for the shutdowns which would be short-sighted.  The reality is that for whatever reason both new cases and deaths are leveling off in both the US and Worldwide. I want to see greater testing capability and our death rate in California significantly falling before Phase 1 but see no reason in denying the improvements that are obvious.

Finally, I know this could change and infection trends could pick up again but .... 800K? I'd like to hear the argument for how we get there from here (44K and death rate dropping).

[Leftcoast]

I'll confidently take the under on that.

I don't see how you get to 800K based upon what we've seen so far. Specifically there is no adjustment for societal changes (Social distancing, masks, other behavior changes), medical treatment improvements (over time treatments will emerge), improved government policy (including test/contact trace, etc) or improvement in infection R or IFR statistics (I'm still hoping for a seasonal slowdown). There's no reason to believe we must follow the 1918 patterns.

Often it seems establishment spokesmen are overly inclined to take the most pessimistic outlook to guide public behavior.  Perhaps they fear giving the public a brighter forward picture will reduce our fervor for the shutdowns which would be short-sighted.  The reality is that for whatever reason both new cases and deaths are leveling off in both the US and Worldwide. I want to see greater testing capability and our death rate in California significantly falling before Phase 1 but see no reason in denying the improvements that are obvious.

Finally, I know this could change and infection trends could pick up again but .... 800K? I'd like to hear the argument for how we get there from here (44K and death rate dropping).