[burger]

As we know, all models are only as good as their data. The dropping Ro rates could be a function of degrading testing capacity. Apparently the re-agents to do testing are understandably in short supply because the whole world wants them.

I have a hard time believing Arkansas, with no stay at home orders, has a lower Ro than CT with such orders, and about 2x the testing per capita.

I agree.  People should be paying attention to change in number hospitalized or deaths, not number of cases.  Deaths and hospitalizations will be trailing indicators of infection prevalence.  But that's a good thing because responding to changes in deaths will encourage conservative decision-making on reopening the economy.

[burger]

As we know, all models are only as good as their data. The dropping Ro rates could be a function of degrading testing capacity. Apparently the re-agents to do testing are understandably in short supply because the whole world wants them.

I have a hard time believing Arkansas, with no stay at home orders, has a lower Ro than CT with such orders, and about 2x the testing per capita.

I agree.  People should be paying attention to change in number hospitalized or deaths, not number of cases.  Deaths and hospitalizations will be trailing indicators of infection prevalence.  But that's a good thing because responding to changes in deaths will encourage conservative decision-making on reopening the economy.